Wheat holds near two-month high after Black Sea attacks

Synopsis

Ukraine has lost about a third of its grain export capacity via Black Sea ports. The current market reaction is likely to be more limited than in 2022.

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Wheat futures held gains after jumping 5% on Wednesday, as Ukrainian and Russian strikes in the Black Sea threatened a key export route for the warring countries.

Most-active futures in Chicago fluctuated between modest gains and losses on Thursday, after surging to near a two-month high following the escalation.

Ukrainian forces struck multiple Russian vessels in the Black Sea after targeting more than 100 Russia-linked ships in the Sea of Azov in recent days. Russia has also intensified attacks on Ukraine’s ports, hitting cargo ships at Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi. The Black Sea is important for both countries’ trade, and Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Bloomberg

Ukraine has already lost about a third of its grain export capacity via Black Sea ports because of intensifying Russian strikes, Reuters reported, citing the Ukrainian Agrarian Council. “Both Russia and Ukraine seem to be focused on limiting each other’s export revenue and that is bullish,” the Hightower Report said in a note on Wednesday.

The situation echoes the Black Sea supply shock at the start of the war in 2022, when Ukrainian ports closed and millions of tons of grain were stranded.

“The current market reaction is likely to be more limited,” said Vitor Pistoia, senior grains and oilseeds analyst at Rabobank. While both episodes occurred during a period of tight global supply, the timing is different.

“Back in 2022, the war escalated ahead of the Northern Hemisphere spring planting and growing season, so the market priced in the risk of lower production as well as export disruptions,” he said. “In 2026, the focus is largely on exports.”