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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAGold edged higher after the Fed held rates as investors weighed Kevin Warsh's inflation stance and awaited U.S. PCE inflation data.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,076.29 per ounce by 0245 GMT after climbing as much as 2% in the previous session, while U.S. August gold futures gained 1% to $4,073.60. The move followed the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting.
The precious metal also found support from heightened geopolitical risks after the U.S. military confirmed fresh strikes against Iranian military targets, although easing oil prices limited broader safe-haven demand. Investors are now awaiting the release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge the June PCE Price Index for further clues on the central bank's policy path.
Fed's inflation message reshapes interest-rate expectations
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the federal funds target range unchanged, while three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point increase, highlighting growing divisions over how quickly inflation can return to the Fed's 2% objective. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the central bank remained committed to restoring price stability but stopped short of signaling when additional tightening might occur.
Markets interpreted Warsh's remarks as less hawkish than some investors had anticipated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign a 63% probability of a September rate hike, down from roughly 81% before the Fed's latest decision, reflecting reduced confidence that policymakers will tighten policy immediately.
Iran conflict and oil market volatility support safe-haven demand
Geopolitical tensions remained a key driver for bullion after the United States carried out another round of military strikes against Iranian targets, extending a conflict that has increasingly affected global energy markets and investor sentiment. The escalation reinforced demand for defensive assets despite some stabilization in broader financial markets.
Oil prices surrendered part of their recent gains on Thursday as commercial tankers continued transiting the Middle East, easing immediate concerns over disruptions to crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices helped temper expectations of another sharp inflation shock, limiting additional upside for gold.
The interaction between oil and gold has become increasingly important for investors. Rising crude prices can fuel inflation expectations and increase demand for inflation hedges such as gold, while declining oil prices often reduce those pressures by lowering expected consumer and producer costs.
June PCE inflation data becomes the next major catalyst
Investors are now focused on the release of the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, scheduled for 1230 GMT, as the report could significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation because it captures a broader range of consumer spending than the Consumer Price Index.
A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce the case for another interest-rate increase, strengthening Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. Conversely, softer inflation data would likely support bullion by reducing expectations of further monetary tightening.
Market participants will also monitor whether inflation continues to moderate despite elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, factors that have complicated the Federal Reserve's efforts to return inflation sustainably to its 2% target.
Other precious metals trade mixed
Precious metals traded in mixed fashion alongside gold. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $57.86 per ounce, while palladium gained 1.5% to $1,264.49. Platinum declined 0.6% to $1,602.34, reflecting differing demand dynamics across industrial and investment metals.
Analysts at TD Securities said gold's latest rally could prove temporary if oil prices fail to resume their advance, adding that the metal could gradually retreat toward $3,900 per ounce should geopolitical risks ease and inflation expectations moderate.
Even so, bullion continues to draw support from a combination of monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and inflation risks. With the Federal Reserve remaining data-dependent and investors awaiting fresh economic indicators, gold is likely to remain highly sensitive to incoming inflation data and developments in the Middle East over the coming weeks.
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold edges higher on soft US inflation, Gulf conflict clouds rate outlook | 0 | 7 | 15-07-2026 |
| 2 | Gold trades near two-week high on cooling US rate-hike bets | 0 | 7 | 06-07-2026 |
| 3 | Gold set for biggest weekly drop since early June on inflation, rate-hike worries | 0 | 7 | 18-07-2026 |
| 4 | Gold rises from two-week low ahead of US inflation data | 0 | 5 | 14-07-2026 |
| 5 | Gold slips as oil rally keeps inflation, rate outlook on investors' radar | 0 | 5 | 15-07-2026 |
| 6 | Warsh says Fed has 'no tolerance' for high inflation but provides no hints on next move | 0 | 5 | 14-07-2026 |
| 7 | Fed chair Warsh sidesteps Senate questions on inflation, AI, contact with Trump | 0 | 5 | 15-07-2026 |
| 8 | Fed chair Warsh sidesteps Senate questions on inflation, AI, contact with Trump | 0 | 5 | 15-07-2026 |
| 9 | Global Market: Australian shares log best week in 3 as Fed-hike bets cool; banks, miners lead | 3 | 7 | 03-07-2026 |