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You may have heard talk of the possibility of a so-called “Super El Niño” developing in the Pacific Ocean, and those odds are growing stronger.
According to the latest guidance from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, there is an 81% chance that a “very strong” El Niño pattern could take hold, and there is a growing chance it could be one of the strongest on record dating back to 1950.
What’s more, there is a staggering 97% chance the pattern could persist at least into early spring, which could potentially have an impact on the Chicago area’s winter weather.
So what does this all mean?
An El Niño weather pattern occurs when the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken, allowing warmer ocean water to be pushed to the east, toward the west coast of the Americas.
Those warmer waters can push the Pacific jet stream further south, which ultimately can have big impacts on North America, including the Chicago area.
A so-called “Super El Niño” features even warmer water pushing that jet stream further to the south, which can allow warm, dry air to flood over large swaths of the United States, according to the National Weather Service.
Climate change and warming oceans are likely at least partially to blame for the strength of this year’s developing pattern, and while there’s no guarantee that pattern will persist, confidence is growing that it will indeed have impacts on weather patterns in the United States.
Not all El Niño weather patterns create impacts in all areas of the country, but if that pattern impacts the Chicago area, it would likely mean a stretch of warmer and drier weather, especially during the winter months, according to the University of Illinois.
That could mean above-average temperatures and less snowfall than normal, especially if the pattern persists into the spring months.
The Climate Prediction Center will unveil its latest forecasts in mid-August, giving a better idea of what to expect in the months ahead.