expert reaction to wildfires in France and Spain

Дата публикации: 24-07-2026 11:28:20

Experts comment on wildfires in France and Spain.   Dr Thomas Smith, Associate Professor in Environmental Geography, London School of … read more

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July 24, 2026

Experts comment on wildfires in France and Spain.

Dr Thomas Smith, Associate Professor in Environmental Geography, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), said:

⁠Will we see fires like in France and Spain here in the UK and if not why not?

“The UK is unlikely to experience wildfires on the same scale as what we are currently seeing in Spain and France. Despite the current heatwave conditions, our climate is generally cooler and wetter which means that vegetation takes longer to dry out, meaning less fuel is available to burn on the ground. UK landscapes are also far more fragmented (by agriculture and infrastructure) than those that are burning in Spain and France, which also helps fires to slow down or stop spreading.

What areas of the UK most at risk and why?

“In the coming week or so, it is very much the south and southeast of England that is most at risk — parts of the country that have not received any meaningful rain since the last heatwave and fire outbreak in the UK. However, in general, no part of the UK is immune to wildfire. In the spring, we tend to see more fires in the upland moors and heathlands, including northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland, while in the summer months, grasslands and forests become more susceptible, especially during prolonged periods of drought like the one we are currently experiencing.

“Wildfire risk depends on three things: the weather, the amount and type of vegetation available to burn, and the presence of an ignition source. Some landscapes naturally accumulate more flammable vegetation, while others experience more people or infrastructure that can provide ignitions. During extreme fire weather, areas where dry vegetation and human activity coincide become particularly vulnerable. This is perhaps why we have seen such a spate of fires on the edge of towns and cities in the most recent heatwave, often in shrubby fuels close to populated or highly frequented places.”

What can we do now to prevent wildfires in the UK? 

“Most UK wildfires are started by people, either accidentally or deliberately. During periods of high fire danger, avoiding disposable barbecues, campfires, discarded cigarettes and other ignition sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce wildfire risk. If vegetation is exceptionally dry, even a small ignition can develop into a rapidly spreading fire.

How should UK residents living in exceptional risk areas prepare for potential wildfires in the upcoming heatwave? 

“The most important step is to stay informed and follow advice from local authorities and Fire and Rescue Services. Residents and visitors should avoid activities that could start a fire, including cooking outdoors. If people are worried about the risk to their properties, some simple steps can be taken, according to UK FireWise advice. This can include removing flammable materials from garden and shed spaces and clearing out dead leaves from guttering. More advice can be found on the UK FireWise website.

Should Britons holidaying in European holiday destinations like Spain and France be prepared to flee due to ongoing wildfires abroad?

“Yes. If I was holidaying on the coast of Spain or the south of France, I would make sure I have any fire alert or fire weather apps installed on my phone and familiarise myself with the evacuation plans for the hotel or residence. It’s very important to understand that timely evacuation saves lives. It may not appear to be an urgent situation, but you might also not be aware of the conditions along your evacuation route and whether or not that might be cut off and trap you.”

Comments sent out on Monday the 27th July:

Dr Richard Pope, NCEO Senior Research Fellow, University of Leeds, said:

“With Europe having experienced several heatwaves this summer, much of the surface vegetation has desiccated, creating highly flammable fuel loads. Once ignited, the spread, scale, and intensity of these wildfires across continental Europe have been unprecedented. In some regions, pyroconvection has generated thunderstorms (i.e. pyrocumulonimbus clouds), further exacerbating the situation by lifting and transporting burning material from the surface and depositing it kilometres away, thereby igniting new fires. Overall, these fires have forced the evacuation of more than a quarter of a million people in France and Spain, with wildfires continuing to spread towards Bordeaux.

“While the evacuation of residents from fire-affected regions is paramount, the secondary impacts of intense smoke plumes (i.e. aerosol particles) and hazardous air pollutants (e.g. PM2.5) have also exposed populated areas across Europe to significant health risks. Visible satellite imagery highlights substantial smoke plumes dispersing across southern France and large parts of Spain. Correspondingly, surface monitoring stations have recorded “very poor” and “extremely poor” air quality across France and parts of central Europe as the plumes are transported eastwards.

“Under a warming climate, Europe is likely to experience more frequent and intense heatwaves, further increasing wildfire risk. According to the World Health Organization, European wildfire activity has increased by 57% over the last four years alone (> 100% in parts of the Mediterranean). Consequently, wildfires are not a transient challenge but one that is likely to persist and intensify. As a result, targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies are more necessary than ever to help societies coexist with this growing threat in the years ahead.”

Prof Guillermo Rein, Professor of Fire Science, Imperial College London, said:

“Over the past few weeks, destructive wildfires have swept across France, Spain, Italy and the UK, to name a few, forcing evacuations, destroying homes and stretching emergency services.

“So far, Europe is not experiencing an unprecedented number of wildfires. What is uncommon is the current number of destructive wildfires: fires that spread rapidly, overwhelm fire brigades and force communities to evacuate. The connection with this summer’s repeated heatwaves is strong. Prolonged periods of hot, dry weather leave vegetation unusually dry and therefore much more flammable. When an ignition occurs under these conditions, a wildfire can escalate rapidly. If there is wind, even worse.

“This is precisely why we coined the term ‘firewave’ in our Fire Technology paper following the 2022 London wildfires. A firewave is the wildfire equivalent of a heatwave: a period of exceptionally high wildfire activity that overwhelms the emergency response of a city, region or nation.

“Myth 1: “Wildfires are just caused by extreme weather”. Not quite. Weather is only one part of the wildfire problem. Forest management, ignition prevention and firefighting capability are equally important. Wildfire disasters occur when all four factors align: hot, dry weather leaves unmanaged vegetation highly flammable, an ignition occurs, and the fire grows beyond the capacity of firefighters to contain it.

“Myth 2: “Firefighters can stop every wildfire”. Every fire brigade has physical limits, even the best trained and equipped ones. When fire intensity becomes too high, direct suppression is not possible. Firefighters continue protecting lives and communities, but they often need the weather to help by reducing the wind or bringing rain.

“Myth 3: “The answer is more aircraft and water”. Water is important, but it is only one layer of protection. Wildfire safety requires multiple layers protection, from prevention and early detection to compartmentation, suppression, evacuation and damage mitigation. Focusing on only on any one layer will leave communities vulnerable.

“As Europe adapts to even warmer summers, we need to move beyond reacting to disasters and start building wildfire protection before the next firewave arrives.”

Dr Ruby Lieber, Senior Research Associate in Climate Science at the University of Bristol, said:

“Climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires in the UK by creating more favourable conditions for fires to occur, primarily through changes in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures. Increasing trends in both winter rainfall and warm dry summer periods can lead to greater fuel availability for the fires as the vegetation accumulated in winter dries out. 

“Wildfires can pose a significant health threat as smoke from the fire contains a mixture of pollutants and can significantly reduce air quality, even at great distances from the source. People with existing respiratory conditions, as well as children and elderly people are the most at risk of impacts.”

Dr Alan Kennedy Asser, Senior Research Associate in Climate Science at the University of Bristol, said:

“Wildfires are very complex and each one is unique. Factors such as wind speed and land management are very important for how an individual wildfire spreads, however there is no doubt that extended warm, dry periods like we are currently experiencing in the UK and Europe increase the risk.

“Unfortunately, this is consistent with the trend of what we expect for the region as the planet warms, and I doubt these will be the last major fires we hear about this summer and in summers to come.”

Prof John Marsham, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, said:

“Last year we saw a record area burnt by wildfires in the EU. This year on the 22nd of July the burnt area was close to 2025’s value for the same date – since then we’ve had more fires and  further heat is forecast before the fire season ends. Burning fossil fuels increases both extreme heat and drought, increasing the severity of fires as we are seeing across the EU, Canada, the UK and elsewhere. Worryingly, there is growing evidence that climate models may all underestimate the growth in extreme heat and in Europe (due to failing to adequately capture changes in atmospheric circulation and/or effects of drying soils on air temperatures and so circulation), so future increase in fires may well be worse than predicted. It’s vital that people understand that the climate crisis is a “one-way street”. Once we stop emitting carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, we can stabilise but not significantly decrease global temperatures: this is “the coolest year of the rest of our lives”. Finally, without downplaying the current tragic fire situation, it’s important to see these fires as a symptom of the bigger crisis we are all facing. The climate crisis is now threatening entire ecosystems. At 1.5 degrees warming (perhaps 6 years from now) most plants and animals across Europe should hopefully remain in a climate that is suitable for them. Without urgent action, at the end of my kids’ lifetimes, we will have 3 degrees warming and that will no longer be the case.”

Dr Matthew Jones, NERC Independent Research Fellow in the School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (UEA), said:

On the causes:

“On first inspection, a major factor behind these latest fires appears to be a “whiplash” effect. Large stocks of dense vegetation built up during the unusually wet winter and spring and have since been parched by extreme heat, creating a tinderbox of fuels ready to burn. The current heatwave and flash drought provide the “crack of the whip” in the whiplash effect, turning that dense vegetation into highly combustible fuel.

“Arguments will continue about the specific ignitions that started these fires, but that somewhat misses the point. In densely populated areas around cities like Madrid and Bordeaux, where people have many access points to the landscape, some form of ignition is always likely even if it is completely accidental.”

On climate change:

“While there is nothing new about ignitions occurring in these parts of the Mediterranean, climate change is producing stronger swings between wet and dry extremes, creating the ideal conditions for more regular and more extreme fires. We are seeing this fingerprint of climate change around the world, but especially in Mediterranean and seasonally dry climates. The risks are rising, and the result has been a succession of deadly events, from southeast Australia, Chile and South Africa to the western US, and southern Europe.

“We are also seeing a growing signal of multi-year extremes. For example, just in the past decade, we’ve seen Siberia, Canada, California, the Amazon and now the Mediterranean all experience the back-to-back extreme fire seasons.

“The UK is not immune to these risks. Last year, the UK experienced its first recorded “megafire”. In July 2022, which was the last time that the UK saw Mediterranean-like summer conditions, fires spread from grasslands into suburban areas of London. Moorland fires in 2018, 2025, and 2026 have brought unhealthy levels of smoke pollution to some of our major cities.

“Climate scientists have been warning about these risks for decades, so none of this should come as a surprise. This is just one cost of inaction on climate. The impacts of climate change are already here, and Europe is once again experiencing them through loss of life, evacuations and severe economic disruption.

“It is not too late to act. Further increases in the frequency and severity of these events are already partly “baked in” due to past failures to reduce emissions quickly enough. But what we do next matters – the rate of change can still be moderated through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and through political commitment and leadership to deliver Net Zero.

On management:

“The “long game” for reducing wildfire risk is to cut emissions to Net Zero and thus limit future increases in extreme heat, drought and the swings between wet winters or springs and exceptionally hot summers. This makes recent signs of weakening commitment to Net Zero among major political parties deeply concerning and, arguably, irresponsible.

“The “short game” priority is to expand our near real-time fuel monitoring capabilities and to implement fuel management as required at strategic points on the landscape. This is particularly important around the edges of cities and settlements, and in locations that could provide defensible strongholds for firefighters if a fire front is moving towards communities. These measures can substantially reduce the risk of fires spreading with extreme behaviour, making it easier and safer for firefighters to respond when wildfires inevitably ignite.

“Eliminating ignitions entirely is not realistic, but every ignition prevented frees firefighting resources to deal with other fires. That is why Australia introduces total fire bans during dangerous conditions. It is also why stronger restrictions on products clearly associated with ignition risk, including disposable barbecues, should be an obvious part of wildfire prevention.

“We also need to look beyond the immediate effects of fire and prepare more effectively for the health impacts of smoke. Wildfire smoke kills many more people each year than the fires do directly. Healthcare services need to be ready for peaks in admissions among vulnerable groups, and stronger protections are also needed for outdoor workers during severe smoke events.”

Prof Stefan Doerr, Editor-in-Chief International Journal of Wildland Fire; and Director of the Centre for Wildfire Research, Swansea University, Swansea University, said:

“The fact that both France and Spain are so heavily affected that both requested assistance through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism is exceptional. A synchronised, multinational wildfire crisis is rare in Europe. 

“In Australia, parts of the US and Canada, there is a general expectation and acceptance of out of control wildfires to occur. In Europe there is still a widely held notion that such fires can be entirely prevented. A stronger shift from reactive response via fire suppression towards resilience is needed given the increasing risk of extreme fires in parts of Europe driven by climate change and the proliferation of vegetation ‘fuels’ in the landscape. Suppression coordination is already very good in Europe and the need for this shift is widely recognised, but not sufficiently implemented. 

“Travel to holiday destinations throughout the summer will be impacted by wildfires. A summer drought is a defining feature of the Mediterranean climate, which means a significant general wildfire risk is common in the summer (especially July and August) in popular holiday destinations in Mediterranean countries. This year, the risk is extended into more Atlantic regions through three consecutive heat waves. 

“The extreme fires currently near 3 major European cities across two countries is consistent with projections that climate change will increase the frequency of concurrent extreme fire weather across multiple regions.”

Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading, said:

“A warming climate is intensifying the water cycle, including wet and dry extremes, which can make wildfire worse as vegetation growth in wet periods builds more fuel for subsequent intensely hot, dry episodes.”

Dr Michael Byrne, Reader in Climate Science, University of St Andrews, said:

“As the fastest warming continent, Europe is on the frontline of escalating wildfire threats. Warming and drying air in a changing climate mean that the atmosphere more rapidly sucks moisture from dead vegetation, creating more flammable fuel and turbocharging wildfires that burn larger areas more intensely. This year, southern and western Europe also had a wet winter, leading to more vegetation and more fuel for the summer wildfires we are now experiencing. So 2026 has been a perfect storm for European wildfires. As climate continues to warm, we expect the conditions for extreme wildfires to occur more and more frequently. To counter this escalating threat from wildfires, societies need to re-double efforts to mitigate the effects of extreme weather and reduce carbon emissions towards net zero.” 

Dr Vikki Thompson, Climate Scientist, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, said:

“Across Europe, notably in France and Spain, wildfires are raging. Climate change increases the risk of wildfires as an increase in hot and dry conditions lead to exceptional fire danger.

“Heatwaves are becoming hotter, happening more often, and lasting longer. Europe is the fastest warming continent, heating at roughly double the global average. We know this is caused by fossil fuel burning – and so a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences.”

“In coming days heatwave conditions are likely to be met yet again across the UK, we must remember that this raises the risk of wildfires. As we have already seen this summer, the UK is at risk of wildfires. This week parts of the UK will experience the ‘perfect’ weather conditions for wildfires: hot, dry, and windy. This leads to the exceptional fire danger.” 

Dr Chloe Brimicombe, Climate scientist, University of Oxford, said:

“With climate change the likelihood of hot and dry weather occurring during the summer is increasing. This makes wildfire risk higher. This combination of hazards can be known as multi-hazards, occurring together as compound hazards or in sequence as cascading hazards.

“Wildfires are burning a large area of Europe and spread rapidly because of wind speed. Wildfire management, evacuation planning and education and access to water to put out fires is essential. Also, the health and safety of fire crews is a factor we need to think about. 

“Spain has been calling for a climate pact across Europe – it is really important we have a transition to net zero to stop increasing the risk level that makes wildfires more likely.”

Prof Bill McGuire, Emeritus Professor of Geophysical & Climate Hazards, University College London (UCL), said:

“Worsening wildfires go hand-in-hand with the continuing ramping up of the planet’s temperature. Europe is particularly at risk, having already warmed by more than 2C since pre-industrial times – twice the average rate of global heating. Extreme temperatures and drought conditions, following a wet winter that has allowed vegetation to burgeon, is providing a perfect storm of conditions that allows wildfires to ignite easily and spread at breakneck pace. As we continue to pour more than 40 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year – roughly the weight of 800,000 Titanics – wildfire activity is only going to increase right across the planet, threatening not only villages and towns, but entire cities”.

Dr Theodore Keeping, Research Associate in the Analysis of Extreme Weather and Wildfires, Imperial College London, said:

“These fires (in Spain and France) are some of the most extreme we have seen in Europe, in their size, in rapidity of spread, and in the pyrocumulonimbus storms they have created. Whilst wildfires are affected by people, and need vegetation, the hot and dry summer weather we have seen is the key driver of this extreme behaviour. Consecutive windy, and very hot days mean that a fire will continue to grow faster and larger until it runs out of vegetation, and when this intensity increases to a very high level, we see the formation of pyrocumulonimbus systems which often strengthen and continue the winds driving the fire. Climate change is causing these conditions to become much more likely and more intense, which is why we are seeing much more extreme wildfires across Europe. 

“As of today (Monday) there is a day of relative respite for the very rapid spread we’ve been seeing near Bordeaux, as lower temperatures and slightly higher humidity mean less intense burning and a chance to get ahead of the fire in some areas. Complete suppression of fires of this size is not feasible without the fire dying down significantly, and the return of very hot conditions of the coming days make the continued development of these fires likely. 

“The impacts of these fires go beyond evacuations and destroyed property. From the science, we would expect major economic impacts due to the disruption, and wildfire smoke from major events is deadly. Estimates are for well over 100,000 excess deaths globally due to smoke exposure from wildfires.”

Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe, Fire Forecast Coordinator, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: 

On pyrocumulonimbi:

“A pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) is an extremely powerful fire-generated thunderstorm. It develops when an intense wildfire releases enough heat to generate a rapidly rising column of hot air, smoke and moisture. If the atmosphere is sufficiently unstable, this plume can grow into a fully developed thunderstorm cloud.

“The formation of a pyrocumulonimbus indicates that the fire is interacting strongly with the atmosphere and has begun to generate its own weather. These storms can produce powerful and erratic winds, strong downdrafts and lightning, making fire behaviour highly unpredictable and extremely dangerous for firefighters and nearby communities. In some cases, pyrocumulonimbus events can inject smoke into the upper troposphere or even the lower stratosphere, reaching altitudes comparable to those associated with a moderate volcanic eruption.

“Pyrocumulonimbus events are well documented in Australia, Canada and the western United States, where they are associated with the most extreme wildfires. They remain relatively rare in Europe. It is difficult to say with certainty whether this is the first documented pyrocumulonimbus associated with a wildfire in France. However, if confirmed, its development would highlight the exceptional intensity of the current fire and the extraordinary atmospheric conditions under which it is burning.”

*Comments from SMC Spain*

Cristina Santín Nuño, Senior scientist at the CSIC and head of the Department of Biodiversity and Global Change of the Joint Institute for Biodiversity Research (University of Oviedo-CSIC), said:

Why is it proving so difficult to bring under control, on the one hand, the fire in Madrid-Ávila and, on the other, the one in the province of Castellón?

“When such extreme fires occur – due to their scale, intensity, danger and, furthermore, the fact that they are happening simultaneously – it is, to a large extent, the fires themselves that dictate how the situation unfolds. No matter how many fire-fighting resources are mobilised, it is not always possible to tackle them directly or extinguish them whilst certain weather conditions and fire behaviour persist. It is important for the public to understand that fire-fighting resources have their limits. In these situations, teams try to contain the fire where possible, guide its progress, make the most of opportunities offered by the terrain or changes in the weather and, above all, protect the population.”

Do we have to get used to this type of fire that exceeds our fire-fighting capacity?

“Unfortunately, we have to accept that these incidents may become increasingly frequent and dangerous, as we have already been observing in recent years. We can and must focus on prevention to reduce the likelihood of major fires occurring and limit their severity, but we will not be able to prevent them all. Current climate conditions and the nature of many of our landscapes favour the outbreak of extreme fires. We must work together to mitigate this risk, but transforming the landscape and minimising the impact of climate change are long and complex processes. In the meantime, we must be prepared to respond when these fires do occur.”

What can be done when fires exceed our firefighting capacity?

“When a fire exceeds firefighting capacity, the absolute priority must be the safety of the public and the emergency services themselves. At such times, the objective cannot always be to immediately extinguish the entire fire front, but rather to protect inhabited areas, organise evacuations or lockdowns, reduce exposure to smoke, and take advantage of any safe opportunity to contain the fire’s advance. In this incident, around 100,000 people have had to be evacuated or placed under lockdown. Although there has already been one fatality (in Manises), the scale of the emergency highlights the importance of civil protection systems functioning effectively and of the public following official instructions.”

Are we prepared to deal with them?

“It is very difficult to be fully prepared for emergencies of this magnitude, but there are areas where progress has been made and many others where we still need to improve. It is essential to strengthen prevention, regional planning, coordination between authorities, early warning systems, civil protection and public education. We must also talk about shared responsibility: the authorities have a key responsibility, but society as a whole must be aware of the risks, keep themselves informed, prepare basic self-protection measures and, above all, always follow the instructions of the emergency services.”

Víctor Resco de Dios, Lecturer of Forestry Engineering and Global Change, University of Lleida and researcher at Agrotecnio, said:

Why is it proving so difficult to bring under control, on the one hand, the fire in Madrid-Ávila, and, on the other, the one in La Vall d’Uixó?

“We have entered an era of fires that cannot be extinguished. These are fires that burn with the intensity of several atomic bombs and, as such, putting them out is extremely complex. They burn with such intensity because of all the energy stored in the hills, in the form of biomass, and because of all the drying energy in the atmosphere, resulting from the indiscriminate burning of fossil fuels. Added to this are adverse weather and topographical conditions.”

Do we have to get used to this type of fire, which exceeds our fire-fighting capacity?

“I think the question right now is: how many more deaths will it take before effective measures are taken? Last week, in comments to the SMC, I mentioned how we were on the verge of experiencing mega-fires covering 100,000 hectares, and the Burgohondo fire complex has already reached 70,000 hectares. This is the largest fire on the Iberian Peninsula. When a patient suffering from an infection goes to the doctor, they essentially have two options: either to follow the course of treatment prescribed by the doctor or to go without treatment. If they do not take the medication, the infection will probably end up killing them. Right now, we are that patient who is not taking the medication. We must not get used to this situation, as with prevention and other measures we can bring the fires under control.”

What can be done when the fires exceed our fire-fighting capacity?

“If the fire is beyond our fire-fighting capacity, we can tackle the parts that are within our capacity, such as the flanks or the tail. Depending on the circumstances, the only option is to evacuate the area, even for the firefighters, as they are in grave danger.”

Are we prepared to tackle them?

“We can improve by establishing a risk culture and enhancing firefighting intelligence—that is, our analytical capabilities—and by incorporating fire analysts into the chain of command, along with specialists in planning and logistics. Some communities in Spain have already done so, but not all. However, all this will be in vain if we do not manage the fuel load. No one is prepared to tackle fires with the power of 23 atomic bombs – which is the energy released by this complex of fires.”

Jesús Santiago Notario del Pino, Professor of the Department of Animal Biology, Edaphology and Geology of the University of La Laguna, said:

Why is it proving so difficult to bring the fires in Madrid-Ávila and La Vall d’Uixó under control?

“When a fire is so difficult to control, the most common cause is usually a combination of the following factors: (i) a high load of plant fuel; (ii) very unfavourable weather conditions (high temperatures, low relative humidity, strong and dry winds); (iii) steep and/or rugged terrain, to which we must add (iv) homes, towns or housing estates (i.e. the urban-forest interface), which are usually a priority target for evacuation and fire-fighting efforts, forcing a variable amount of resources to be diverted, even if only temporarily”.

Do we have to get used to this type of fire, which exceeds our fire-fighting capacity?

“If the issue of fuel load is not addressed, I think we’re going to have to get used to it. As many forestry specialists and engineers often say: what we don’t manage ourselves, the fire will manage. The problem is that the fuel load has grown significantly over recent decades, mainly as a result of the exodus from rural areas, and something like this cannot be easily resolved in the short term; I do not believe there are any miracle solutions (nor any cost-effective ones) for a problem of this magnitude.”

What can be done when the fire exceeds the firefighting capacity?

“Remove fuel wherever feasible so that, when the fire front arrives, there isn’t much left to burn and the intensity of the fire is reduced, making it possible to tackle it. On paper it seems simple, but in practice it can be extremely complicated due to the high speed at which the fire spreads (which sometimes overcomes defence lines with great ease), as well as the creation of secondary hotspots caused by the emission of incandescent embers (sparks) that spread through the air; these can cross those lines and endanger firefighting personnel.”

Are we prepared to tackle them?

“From a distance, I get the impression that we are not entirely prepared. In fact, one need only look at our immediate geographical neighbours (Portugal, France, Italy, Greece) to realise that this is a supranational problem.”

Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe, Fire Forecast Coordinator, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: 

“From a hydroclimatic perspective, the fires in Spain reflect a sequence of conditions developing over several months, not only the extreme weather of recent days. A relatively wet spring promoted vegetation growth and increased the amount of potentially burnable material; this was followed by persistent heat, limited rainfall and low humidity, which rapidly dried soils and vegetation. This transition from wet, vegetation-favouring conditions to intense summer drying has created an hydroclimatic ‘rebound’, with abundant and highly flammable fuels. Combined with very high temperatures, exceptionally low humidity and strong winds, these conditions allow any ignition to spread rapidly and make suppression particularly difficult.” 

–Comments sent out previously on Friday the 24^th July–

Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe, Fire Forecast Coordinator, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: 

“From a hydroclimatic perspective, the fires in Spain reflect a sequence of conditions developing over several months, not only the extreme weather of recent days. A relatively wet spring promoted vegetation growth and increased the amount of potentially burnable material; this was followed by persistent heat, limited rainfall and low humidity, which rapidly dried soils and vegetation. This transition from wet, vegetation-favouring conditions to intense summer drying has created an hydroclimatic ‘rebound’, with abundant and highly flammable fuels. Combined with very high temperatures, exceptionally low humidity and strong winds, these conditions allow any ignition to spread rapidly and make suppression particularly difficult.” 

*COMMENTS FROM OUR FRIENDS AT SMC SPAIN*

Víctor Resco de Dios, Lecturer of Forestry Engineering and Global Change, University of Lleida and researcher at Agrotecnio, said:

What is the reason for the intensity of these three fires?

“The intensity of fire seasons has increased by an average of 30–40 per cent over recent decades. We have been warning about this for many years. This increase in intensity is due to all the energy stored in the countryside in the form of biomass, as a result of rural depopulation and, at times, excessively protectionist environmental policies. It is also, on the other hand, because the atmosphere is laden with drying energy, as a consequence of the burning of fossil fuels.”

What role does the type of vegetation in these areas play?

“What matters is not the type of vegetation, but the type of fuel – that is, how much biomass there is and, above all, how it is spatially connected. That is why we talk about creating mosaic landscapes, where discontinuities are introduced into the landscape: areas where the intensity of the flames decreases and firefighters can extinguish the fires. It is often claimed that pine and eucalyptus trees are to blame for the fires. The reality is that 70 per cent of what burns is scrubland and that the area of pine forest affected is decreasing (fires in eucalyptus plantations have always been rare, as they cover a very small area). On the contrary, studies show that protected areas are burning more frequently, precisely because of this continuity in vegetation and biomass (which does not mean that protected areas are a bad thing, but rather that fuel and fire must be managed).”

They are affecting the urban-forest interface. How can homes and the surrounding area be protected?

“There are many detailed guides available that any member of the public can consult. People need to take a series of measures to protect their homes and, in collaboration with the local council, implement protection plans.”

What can be done to prevent the flames from causing so much damage?

“Manage the fuel, the biomass – what burns in a fire. We must manage 1 million hectares nationwide, focusing on containment corridors at national and regional levels, strategic points at mountain range level and, additionally, at local level through prevention plans.”

Eduardo Rojas Briales, Lecturer at the Polytechnic University of Valencia and former Deputy Director-General of the FAO, said:

What is the reason for the intensity of these three fires?

“The ferocity of the fires affecting Toledo, Madrid and Ávila is due to a combination of factors, notably two consecutive years of heavy rainfall followed by a sudden halt in the rains in May and the immediate onset of summer with consistently high temperatures and low humidity. Added to this is the fact that this is the part of the Central Mountain Range with the lowest rainfall, due to the lower altitude of its highest peaks, and consequently, vegetation that is more xerophytic and prone to burning than in other areas of the Central Mountain Range.

“Compounding this is a northward shift in recent years of the contra-trade winds (a dry, warm tropical wind from the south-west), which sweep across the land in elevated areas south of the temperate storm cycle and are well known in Tenerife and La Palma for causing fires in the highest pine forests. Finally, the intense pressure from the Madrid property market, combined with the quality of these landscapes, has led to a great deal of scattered development—some of which predates modern town-planning regulations—and which poses many risks and diverts resources.”

What role does the type of vegetation in these areas play?

“As I have indicated, from the line running vertically from the city of Ávila to practically El Escorial, the Central System drops by around 1,000 metres, losing much of its ability to attract rain and storms, whilst also facilitating the flow of warmer, drier air masses from the south. As a result, temperate and high-mountain species (Scots pine, Pyrenean oak, etc.) disappear, to be replaced by maritime pine and stone pine, as well as holm oak. Furthermore, the soils do not retain much water or nutrients and are quite shallow.”

This is affecting the urban-forest interface. How can homes and the surrounding environment be protected?

“A first step is to establish regional regulations aimed at preventing fires in urban-forest interface areas, tailored to each territory and its legislation. Next, local councils should be required, either individually or collectively, to have comprehensive plans in place to prevent and minimise interface fires, with financial support provided for their implementation, particularly for smaller councils with fewer financial resources. The planned activities should include training and drills with local residents, particularly regarding evacuation when required. Some autonomous communities have made significant progress in this area and could serve as models, with the necessary adaptations.”

What can be done to prevent the flames from causing so much damage?

“Implement the plans outlined and, in the case of isolated houses, check the vegetation and any lightweight wooden or plastic structures to prevent the fire from spreading to homes. Similarly, enhance the infrastructure to ensure there is always a dual exit/entry route and adequate signage.”

Juli G. Pausas, CSIC lecturer at CIDE (Centre for Research on Desertification), Valencia, said:

“This is the chronicle of a situation long foretold. Once we, as a society, have accepted that we are changing the climate, these fires become part of the new normal; in other words, they are exactly what we expected. For decades, it has been warned that if we continue to drive up temperatures, the consequences could be very serious, including a significant increase in the frequency, size and intensity of wildfires. With the temperatures and heatwaves, we are currently experiencing, almost any type of vegetation can catch fire. Last summer we saw beech forests (Fagus sylvatica) go up in flames, something unexpected.

“From an ecological point of view, it is worth remembering that many of the areas affected by fires, especially those with a Mediterranean climate, will recover and biodiversity will not be lost. The situation is more problematic in the case of fires affecting higher-altitude areas, where species are not as well adapted to fire, as is the case with the beech trees I have just mentioned.

“The solutions, of course, are not straightforward, and include both tackling climate change aggressively to prevent it from getting worse, and implementing fire prevention measures better suited to the new climate. Prevention may include, amongst other actions:

Creating heterogeneity in the landscape (mosaics), that is, fragmenting large forest areas by alternating them with areas that are less flammable (for example, agricultural land), thereby creating landscapes that foster more sustainable fire regimes, both ecologically and socially.

Encouraging small, frequent, low-intensity fires, either by making use of natural fires outside the summer months or by carrying out prescribed burns.

Encouraging, as far as possible, extensive rural farming. The introduction of herbivores, whether native (rewilding) or livestock (private or municipal herds), can reduce the amount of fuel and, consequently, limit fires (and facilitate prescribed burning).

Implement aggressive vegetation management around homes in the urban-forest interface; in these areas, self-protection and the acceptance of responsibilities and costs associated with living in flammable landscapes should also be encouraged.

Limit the urban-forest interface, that is, restrict the expansion of housing developments and industrial estates into rural and natural areas.

Víctor Fernández-García, Lecturer in the Department of Engineering and Agricultural Sciences at the University of León, said:

What is the cause of the intensity of these three fires?

“What we are seeing in recent years is the result of a combination of short-term problems and longer-term structural issues. In the short term, the weather conditions in spring (rainy) and summer (dry) are key factors and are closely linked to climate change. But these conditions are affecting a landscape that has been turning into a powder keg across the country for decades (abandonment of crops and land use, the accumulation and persistence of vegetation, the expansion of residential areas into the countryside, and plantations and scrubland coming ever closer to population centres).”

What role does the type of vegetation in these areas play?

“The vegetation in the area plays a decisive role. In terms of its composition, it is vegetation that is quite prone to fire and highly flammable (as is the case across almost the whole country), with a significant number of Spanish stone pine and Aleppo pine forests, or dense areas of scrub. Oak and chestnut groves are slightly less flammable. In any case, much of this vegetation is adapted to burning and catches fire easily in summer. Beyond its composition, the quantity and continuity of this vegetation—which acts as the fuel that feeds the fire—are of great importance.

“We will probably hear once again that climate change is the main culprit, but presenting it as the sole cause may serve to sidestep the very issue we can actually act upon, namely the vegetation that feeds the fire; that is, the management of woodland and urban-forest interfaces”.

They are affecting the urban-forest interface. How can homes and the surrounding environment be protected?

“The best way to protect homes is to ensure that the fuel (vegetation) and the homes are not too close together. In urban-forest interface areas, regional regulations have moved in this direction. Certain housing developments, buildings and facilities adjoining forest land must have a self-protection plan and maintain a perimeter strip free of dry vegetation, with sparse tree cover. Undeveloped plots, access routes and verges must also be managed.

“The problem is that passing regulations and plans does not guarantee their implementation, as many of the areas that need to be kept free of vegetation consist of small private plots with numerous owners and are sometimes derelict, which makes management extremely difficult.”

What can be done to prevent the flames from causing so much damage?

“There is no single magic solution, but one key aspect could be to make greater use of controlled burning in the landscape – the kind of fire we want, ‘good’ fires to combat the outbreak of ‘bad’ fires.

“We cannot prevent the next heatwave at local council or regional government level, but we can manage the vegetation, which is what feeds the fire. The aim is not to ‘clear’ the entire woodland, but to work in strategic areas so that, when a fire does arrive, it finds less fuel and can be brought under control without endangering the population. Treating all high-risk areas mechanically would be economically unfeasible, so we must complement traditional prevention work with efficient alternatives such as prescribed burning. We should even consider allowing certain low-risk fires to burn, such as many winter or spring fires, as these burnt areas will act as large firebreaks for a number of years.

“It is well established that systematically suppressing all fires creates a false sense of security. If, for decades, there are no fires and no management measures to fulfil their function, fuel accumulates and the continuity of the fire increases. When a fire finally does occur (most likely in summer and under extreme weather conditions), it is much more intense and difficult to control, as there are large amounts of vegetation and, furthermore, landscapes that have not been fragmented by previous fires. This is, to a large extent, what is happening. Naturally, fires that threaten people and property must be extinguished, but such firefighting must be complemented by management measures throughout the rest of the year.”

Declared interests

Dr Thomas Smith: “no interests to declare”

Dr Richard Pope: “I have no conflicts of interest.”

Dr Ruby Lieber: “No interests to declare.”

Dr Alan Kennedy Asser: “No interests to declare.”

Prof John Marsham: “No conflicts of interest”

Dr Matthew Jones: “Nothing to declare”

Prof Stefan Doerr: “No conflicts of interest. “

Dr Michael Byrne: “no interests to declare”

Dr Vikki Thompson: “No conflicting interests.”

Dr Chloe Brimicombe: “No disclosures”

Prof Bill McGuire: “No interests to declare”

Dr Theodore Keeping: “No interests to declare”

Cristina Santín Nuño: The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest

Víctor Resco de Dios: The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest

Jesús Santiago Notario del Pino: “I declare, on my own responsibility, that my position and professional details are as stated in this message, that I have no conflict of interest whatsoever in this matter, and that I have not used any artificial intelligence tools to answer these questions. My answers are based solely and exclusively on my own judgement, drawn from my professional experience.”

Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe: Francesca Di Giuseppe declares no competing interests. She provides scientific expertise on wildfire danger but has no operational responsibility or mandate for issuing forecasts, warnings, evacuation instructions or firefighting decisions.

Víctor Resco de Dios: The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest

Eduardo Rojas Briales: The author has declared they have no conflicts of interest

Juli G. Pausas: The author has declared they have no conflicts of interest

Víctor Fernández-García: The author has not responded to our request to declare conflicts of interest

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