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NEW YORK (VINnews) — Prediction market Polymarket assigned roughly a 30 percent chance Sunday that the United States and Iran would reach a diplomatic agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by Aug. 31, down from higher levels in recent weeks amid stalled.

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As of Sunday evening, the market priced the August 31 outcome near 27-28 percent (with a separate nearer-term August 15 window far lower), according to Polymarket data. Traders have dialed back expectations as talks remain incomplete.

Iran has tied any full reopening of the strategic waterway — a chokepoint for a large share of global oil shipments — to further U.S. concessions. These include compensation for damages from earlier conflict, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and other measures following a June memorandum of understanding that aimed to pause hostilities and restore transit. Iranian officials have said the strait will not fully reopen until Washington “corrects its behavior.”

Negotiations involving Oman continue. Iran and Oman have advanced work on shipping routes and coordinates for an interim management framework, with reports of a draft nearing final stages pending higher-level approval. U.S. involvement has been indirect through intermediaries, and a broader U.S.-Iran accord on Hormuz traffic has not been finalized.

The uncertainty has supported higher oil prices. Brent crude climbed above $84 a barrel as markets weighed risks to one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of regional diplomacy and energy security concerns. Officials on multiple sides have expressed interest in restoring commercial traffic, but core disagreements over conditions and implementation have kept a comprehensive agreement elusive.