Indian bonds skid as crude soars, Treasuries fall

Synopsis

Early Tuesday saw a drop in Indian government bonds, reflecting a broader selloff in US Treasury markets. The rise in crude prices has reignited concerns over inflation, thus influencing market attitudes. Traders are now looking towards key economic figures from both India and the US to inform their views on future rate adjustments.

Indian government bonds buckled early on ​Tuesday, shadowing a Treasury ​selloff, as soaring crude prices rekindled inflation fears, while traders ​braced for economic data from India and the U.S. for fresh signals on the rate path.

Brent crude was up slightly in Asian trade after having risen 5% on Monday to $87.70 a ‌barrel. Washington rebuffed Tehran's ⁠peace ⁠proposal with new demands, dimming hopes of an end to the war and raising supply concerns.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield spiked 6 basis points on Monday and added another 1 bp to 4.71% on Tuesday.

India, the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, is particularly vulnerable to swings in crude prices. Rising U.S. yields also tend to dampen demand for riskier emerging-market debt.

The benchmark 6.94% ⁠2036 Indian ‌bond yielded 6.7907% at 11:45 a.m. IST, compared with 6.7643% ​at Monday's close. ​Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Investors are now focused ⁠on U.S. inflation data due Wednesday as mounting price pressures have lifted the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 51%, from 44% a day earlier.

India's retail inflation data, also due on Wednesday, is expected to edge up to 4.50% in July from 4.38% in June.

Bank of Baroda economists see food prices as the main upside risk after broad-based increases in July, though softer global gold prices may help ‌contain core inflation.

"Inflation may firm up in the coming months, but the increase is unlikely to be alarming enough to ​prompt a Reserve Bank ​of India response," ⁠a foreign bank trader said. The RBI last week cut its inflation forecast in a dovish policy decision, prompting analysts to push back rate-hike calls.

Separately, Indian states ​are set to sell 153 billion rupees ($1.6 billion) of bonds on Tuesday, which will test market appetite.

RATES

India's overnight index swaps also edged higher tracking U.S. yields.

The one-year rate jumped 3 bps to 5.8075%, while the two-year rate rose 5.5 bps to 5.99%. The five-year rate surged 5.25 bps to 6.31%.

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