March 24, 2026

José María Barrero Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Business School

Philip Bunn Bank of England

Steven J. Davis Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution, and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

Brent Meyer Vice President and Senior Economist

Paul Mizen King's College London

Pawel Smietanka Bank of England

Greg Thwaites University of Nottingham

• Working Papers
• Publication
• Macroeconomy
• Employment

Working Paper 2026-3

Abstract: We present the first representative international data on firm-level AI use. We survey almost 6,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives from stratified firm samples across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia. We find four key facts. First, around 70 percent of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. Second, while over two-thirds of top executives regularly use AI, their average use is only 1.5 hours a week, with one quarter reporting no AI use. Third, firms report little impact of AI over the last three years, with more than 80 percent of firms reporting no impact on either employment or productivity. Fourth, firms predict sizable impacts over the next three years, forecasting AI will boost productivity by 1.4 percent, increase output by 0.8 percent, and cut employment by 0.7 percent. We also survey individual employees who predict a 0.5 percent increase in employment in the next three years as a result of AI. This contrast implies a sizable gap in expectations, with senior executives predicting reductions in employment from AI and employees predicting net job creation.

JEL classification: E0

Key words: artificial intelligence, productivity, employment

https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2026-03

The authors would like to thank the Economic and Social Research Council, Smith Richardson Foundation, and Stanford Impact Labs for funding. Any views expressed are solely those of the individual authors and so cannot be taken to represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England or Bundesbank. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one coauthor has disclosed additional relationships of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at nber.org/papers/w34836. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER board of directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2026 Bank of England, circulated with permission. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.

Please address questions regarding content to Ivan Yotzov, Bank of England; Jose Maria Barrero, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) Business School; Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University Department of Economics and NBER; Philip Bunn, Bank of England; Steven J. Davis, Stanford University, Hoover Institution, and NBER; Kevin M. Foster, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Aaron Jalca, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Brent Meyer, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Paul Mizen, King's College London Department of Economics; Michael A. Navarrete, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta; Pawel Smietanka, Deutsche Bundesbank Research Centre; Gregory Thwaites, University of Nottingham Department of Economics; and Ben Zhe Wang, Macquarie University.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta working papers, including revised versions, are available on the Atlanta Fed's website at www.atlantafed.org. Click "Publications" and then "Working Papers." To receive e-mail notifications about new papers, go to subscribe.