Global oil demand and natural gas trading are both set to decline this year, international analysts say, less than two weeks after Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to triple Canada’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and Energy Minister Tim Hodgson declared a $43.7-billion oil pipeline a “good investment” for taxpayers.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected late last week that oil demand will fall by one million barrels per day between 2025 and 2026, after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “wreaked havoc on Middle East exports,” CNBC reports. It would be the first time oil demand has shrunk since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

“While the global oil market balance looks set to swing back to surplus towards the end of the year,” the IEA wrote, “the forecast hinges on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover, allowing producers to restart fields and refiners in the Middle East and elsewhere to resume product shipments.”

Separately, the International Gas Union, which speaks for more than 90% of the global gas market, reported last week that global gas trading could be down this year after hitting a record high in 2025, Reuters says, once again due to supply disruptions brought on by the American/Israeli war on Iran. “The conflict in the Gulf has damaged LNG infrastructure, clouded the outlook for the region’s expansion projects, and exposed Asian buyers to flow uncertainty and higher prices,” said IGU President Andrea Stegher. The Asia-Pacific was the biggest LNG-importing region last year, at 168.7 million tons, but still declined slightly last year, mainly due to lower demand in emerging electrostates China and India.

Carney declared his intention earlier this month to “triple Canada’s LNG production over the next decade and reach new markets in Asia and Europe.” Hodgson told CBC Power & Politics 10 days ago that a $43.7-billion oil pipeline, 90% funded by federal and provincial governments, would be a “good investment” for taxpayers.

Related: Tell us your better ideas for investing $43.7 billion of your tax dollars!

The energy-importing countries that are home to 74% of the world’s population have been scrambling to cope with the global oil and gas crisis and speeding up their shift to renewable electricity sources they can control, with BNEF founder Michael Liebreich advising them to “build the asset. Don’t burn the commodity.” The IEA has introduced a 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker to summarize the steps that 58 countries have taken so far to counter price shocks brought on by the “largest supply disruption in history”.

As of July 13, the list includes:

• 40 requests or mandates for consumers to limit energy demand;

• 25 initiatives to limit vehicle use, ration fuel, lower speed limits, or promote public transport;

• 20 moves to limit air and road travel by government officials;

• 17 efforts to encourage or mandate working from home (while Canada moves public servants back to the office four days a week, with staff reporting troubles with parking and a “bit of a call centre vibe”);

• 8 countries setting temperature limits on air conditioning;

• 7 closing schools or universities or limiting their opening times.

While the European Union received praise in 2022 and 2023 for a fast pivot to energy efficiency and renewables following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol is saying the continent should have moved faster still to secure its energy independence, the Financial Times reported Saturday. “This is in my view a major mistake for Europe,” Birol told the Times. “In general, I would have hoped and expected that Europe would have been more responsive to this crisis.”

Carney and Hodgson have been touting Canadian LNG exports to Europe since last year. However, analysts consistently warn that EU countries will have no need for new supplies in the years or decades ahead, and two highly-publicized deals with potential German customers for British Columbia LNG were actually just preliminary agreements to keep negotiating.