MOSCOW, August 20. /TASS/. Ukraine’s political crisis could intensify by the fall amid new corruption investigations and mounting pressure on Zelensky; an Israeli strike on a Syrian airbase highlights the risk of an accidental military clash with Turkey; and Japan is expanding its long-range strike capabilities with hypersonic missiles and drones. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Ukraine is sinking deeper into a political crisis, which could reach its peak as early as this fall. A new investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) has once again involved people close to Vladimir Zelensky. At the same time, former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov has returned to the public spotlight, calling for elections to be held even under martial law. Experts believe Washington could choose to back him amid the struggle for influence in Ukraine. Meanwhile, further confrontation could trigger a new wave of protests and public calls for a change of government.

Ukraine's political crisis is likely to develop fairly rapidly, former Verkhovna Rada member Spiridon Kilinkarov told Izvestia. In his assessment, the confrontation could peak in the fall of 2026, while the current developments are only the start of a broader domestic political struggle.

At the same time, the further politicization of street protests cannot be ruled out. According to Kilinkarov, even after a new defense minister is formally appointed, protesters could change their demands and focus not on Fedorov's return but on broader issues, above all the fight against corruption and the actions of the Ukrainian authorities.

The developments may be linked primarily to US interests, former Ukrainian lawmaker Igor Markov told Izvestia. In his assessment, Washington, having stepped back from directly supplying Kiev with weapons, is seeking to maintain its influence through NABU and SAPO, thereby limiting Zelensky and further escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. The ultimate objective of pressure from the anti-corruption agencies could be to remove Zelensky from power, Markov believes.

NABU and SAPO are not interested in a strong Zelensky, expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies Vladimir Bruter told Vedomosti. Zelensky needs to remain weak and controllable and must not try to dictate terms to the West, as he sometimes does, the expert said.

The scandal once again demonstrates that corruption is an integral part of Ukraine's political system and that the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian officials are involved in corruption-related crimes, expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government Denis Denisov told the newspaper. According to him, the published materials showed that Ukraine has a shadow government, a "deep state," that is more influential and powerful than the official authorities in Kiev.

For Russia, the destabilization of Ukraine's political system that could follow the scandal is undoubtedly beneficial, but it will not have any lasting consequences, the expert concluded.

An Israeli air raid on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria’s Idlib province near the Turkish border on the morning of August 18 could have triggered a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey, US Special Envoy for Syria and Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said in an interview with The Jerusalem Post the day after the attack. According to him, the Turkish military was unaware of the objectives of the Israeli operation and did not know that Israeli warplanes were heading specifically toward the Syrian base. As a result, Barrack continued, Ankara could theoretically have scrambled its own fighter jets, interpreting the Israeli Air Force’s actions as an attack on Turkish territory. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti consider a direct Turkish-Israeli military conflict over Syria unlikely, arguing that neither side is interested in an open confrontation.

Although Turkish officials have made no statements regarding efforts to restore the Abu al-Duhur airbase, Ankara is likely not opposed to the facility being used, Turkey expert Yashar Niyazbayev told the newspaper. In Turkey’s information space, the country’s presence in Syria is viewed as a necessary measure dictated by circumstances, the expert noted.

By carrying out the operation at the Abu al-Duhur base, Israel is seeking to hinder the revival of the Syrian Air Force, Kirill Semenov, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, believes. According to him, the strike was carried out after Syrian Su-22 fighter-bombers began launching from the base. "The Israelis will continue to carry out periodic limited attacks on Syria in the future. Turkey’s actions, meanwhile, will be limited to statements," the expert said.

According to Niyazbayev, the prospect of a direct military conflict between Turkey and Israel is unrealistic for now.

Neither Turkey nor Israel is interested in a direct military confrontation over Syria, research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Lyudmila Samarskaya said in agreement. Through its military operations in the neighboring country, Israel is signaling its unwillingness to accept an expansion of Turkey’s presence on Syrian territory, the expert continued. "The Israeli leadership fears the expansion of Turkey’s regional influence, while preemptive strikes against neighboring countries are consistent with Israel’s current military strategy, which also calls for proactively preventing potential threats," the expert said.

Japan, whose constitution has for 80 years prohibited the country from maintaining a military as an instrument of war, is beginning a program to develop weapons that, by definition, cannot be considered defensive. These include hypersonic missiles for submarines and long-range strike drones - a system designed to provide Tokyo with a "counterstrike capability" against enemy territory. While the ground-launched Type 25 could still formally be linked to the defense of Japan’s islands, submarine-launched hypersonic weapons and kamikaze drones are blurring the line between defense and offense. Experts told Izvestia Japan’s growing military capabilities are making the Pacific an increasingly significant zone of potential conflict for Russia.

According to the newspaper, these items have already been included in the Defense Ministry’s draft budget for 2027. Particular attention will also be given to technologies and weapons related to implementing the country’s "counterstrike capability." In particular, this includes equipping unmanned underwater vehicles with the capability to launch long-range missiles.

In addition, Tokyo plans to ease restrictions in the nuclear sphere. In 1971, the Japanese authorities adopted three non-nuclear principles: not to possess, not to produce, and not to permit the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory. However, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has now called for this taboo to be reconsidered.

"Obviously, the third non-nuclear principle could be revised in the coming years, with the next step being the deployment of air-delivered nuclear weapons at US bases in Japan," Junior Research Fellow at the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) Alexander Ermakov told Izvestia.

Russia is concerned about the militarization of its maritime neighbor, particularly after Tokyo identified Russia as one of the main sources of threats in its latest military doctrine documents.

"The Pacific Ocean is becoming an increasingly important zone of potential conflict for Russia, as much as the Baltic or Black Sea. Russia must not lose sight of these developments," the analyst said.

US nominal GDP is projected to reach $32.4 trillion in 2026, compared with just $23 trillion for the European Union, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Thus, the combined economies of the EU’s 27 member states will equal just 71% of the US economy. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti attribute Europe’s widening economic gap with the United States primarily to lower labor productivity, structural and demographic challenges, greater dependence on foreign trade, exchange-rate effects, and a series of economic and geopolitical shocks.

Experts consider the current situation entirely predictable. A combination of serious structural problems and a series of shocks - the 2008 global financial crisis, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU (Brexit), the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel crises, foreign trade tariffs, and the war in the Middle East - has significantly weakened the EU’s growth and the resilience of its economic system.

Around 70% of the gap between the EU and the United States in per capita GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) can be attributed to lower labor productivity in the EU, stock market expert at Garda Capital Kirill Seleznev told the newspaper.

When comparing the size of economies, it is important to take exchange rates into account, Senior Analyst at BCS World of Investments Adam Abdulatipov believes. Currency fluctuations, such as a weakening of the euro, would lower the European Union’s nominal GDP in dollar terms even though the physical volume of production at European factories and farms would remain unchanged. It is also important to take into account the EU’s loss in 2008 of one of the world’s largest economies, the United Kingdom. More obvious factors, such as demographics, also contribute.

Europe needs access to foreign markets - this is precisely why tariffs, sanctions, standards, and the new industrial policies of major economies have a much more pronounced impact on the EU. The European economic model is considerably more dependent on foreign trade. The United States has an interest in maintaining a financially stable Europe, the BCS expert said.

Europeans have paid at least €19 bln (around 1.67 trillion rubles) more for energy because of the conflict in the Middle East, according to Izvestia. This is how much households had to spend extra between March and June, which represents only the direct impact of higher commodity prices, without taking into account how businesses subsequently passed their increased costs on to consumers through higher prices for food, transportation, and services. If the conflict continues, European families may need around €88.8 bln in additional spending on the entire consumer basket by the end of the year to maintain their previous standard of living.

The modern economy is closely interconnected through global supply chains, while a significant share of the world’s energy reserves and exports is concentrated in the Persian Gulf countries, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments Andrey Smirnov told the newspaper. As a result, conflicts in the region rapidly influence commodity markets. Countries are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in oil and gas supplies.

Rising energy costs are gradually squeezing other items in European household budgets: mandatory spending on heating and electricity is accounting for an increasingly large share of expenditures, leaving less money for non-food goods and services, Ahmed Yusupov, an economist and Partner at the Goldman and Po communications agency, explained. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency forecasts that electricity prices in the EU could rise 1.5-fold by the end of 2026.

In Europe, the notable increase in gasoline prices stemming from the situation in the Middle East has directly affected household budgets. In Russia, however, the impact is limited. "When comparing the impact on households, Europeans face greater pressure: their economy is more dependent on energy imports and market prices, while the Russian fuel market is largely regulated by the state," economist Olga Gogaladze emphasized.

Nevertheless, the energy crisis in the EU also has an indirect impact on Russia. Despite sanctions and the deterioration in relations in 2022, Russia continues to trade with its eurozone partners. In the first half of 2026, trade turnover declined by 13% to €27 bln (around 2.4 trillion rubles). European countries’ exports to Russia fell by 1.3% to €14.8 bln (1.3 trillion rubles), while imports of Russian goods into the European Union dropped by 24% to €12.2 bln (1 trillion rubles).

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