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A rationale for political disengagement

Дата публикации: 19-08-2026 00:00:00

This paper analyzes how uncertainty about the policy consequences of electoral options influences both citizens’ engagement and electoral outcomes. We consider a spatial voting model of a binary election where risk-averse citizens know their own political preferences but hold imprecise beliefs about the exact locations of available options. Prior to voting, citizens choose whether to acquire additional, unbiased information to refine their beliefs about the election’s outcome and consequences. In relation to electoral outcomes, we find that support for an increasingly uncertain option generally declines. However, support from voters can initially increase if they learn that this option has more moderate consequences than originally believed. With respect to engagement, we show that the additional knowledge is of no value to citizens when it does not impact the election’s outcome. By contrast, when the outcome hinges upon the additional information, and when the options are relatively equally uncertain, all citizens become informed. As one option becomes substantially more uncertain than its alternative, we highlight a simple yet novel insight: we show that ideologically voters may prefer to remain uninformed when refined beliefs unveil the possibility that their preferred option will only prevail under conditions where it least aligns with their ideology. We provide an empirical illustration of our findings using data from the 2016 Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom.

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