Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 18, 2026:

Russian state-owned bank VEB fired Chief Economist Andrey Klepach following media reports of a negative economic assessment he offered that contradicts Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues reiterating its determination to prevent Russia’s deteriorating economic realities from reducing its maximalist war aims by refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations to end the war. 

Russia provides direct military support to Iran via weapons & weapons components transfers. NBC reported on Aug 18 that Russia has transferred drone components, ammunition, & TNT explosives via the Caspian

There is a high threat of ballistic missiles being used in the capital during the night. We advise you to be careful.

Trump’s Ballroom Guy Involved in Secret Kremlin Talks

The Ukrainian Air Forces reported that Russian forces launched 147 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and Parodiya-type drones — including jet-powered Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; occupied Donetsk City; and occupied Crimea.[73]

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 111 drones, that an unspecified number of drones hit 19 locations, and that debris fell at three locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck civilian, industrial, and logistics infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and civilian and port infrastructure, including a civilian vessel, in Mykolaiv Oblast.[74]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Energy reported on August 18 that Russian strikes caused power outages in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Odesa, Chernihiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv oblasts.[75] The Russian MoD claimed on August 18 that Russian forces struck a cargo ship in the Black Sea southeast of Odesa City during the day on August 18.[76]

Geolocated footage published on August 18 shows the aftermath of a Russian Geran drone strike against two diesel locomotives with freight cars near Shakhtarske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the night of August 17 to 18.[77]

Russian forces conducted a Banderol loitering munition strike against Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of August 18 that resulted in high civilian casualties. 

Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleh Synehubov reported on August 18 that Russian forces conducted a missile strike against Pechenihy, Kharkiv Oblast, killing at least ten civilians, injuring at least eight, and damaging civilian infrastructure.[78]

Pechenihy Mayor Oleksandr Gusarov reported that Russian forces used two Banderol loitering munitions to strike the settlement.[79] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the Russian strike against residential areas of Pechenihy.[80] Geolocated footage published on August 18 shows the aftermath of the Russian strike on a residential street in Pechenihy.[81]

Ukraine’s Air Force says Russia launched 147 drones overnight, including Shahed and jet-powered variants, Gerbera and Parodiya decoys. Air defenses downed or suppressed 111 drones across northern, southern and eastern Ukraine. Drone impacts were recorded at 19 locations, with… pic.twitter.com/ANVXitBLTD

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 18, 2026

Russian opposition source Astra reported on August 18 that geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian drones struck the Karbolit chemical plant in Orekhovo-Zuyevo, Moscow Oblast (roughly 510 kilometers from the international border), causing a critical metal platform to collapse.[24]

Moscow Oblast energy operator Mosoblenergo reported that Ukrainian strikes damaged a “higher-level” power grid organization in Moscow Oblast, shutting down 109 transformer substations and leaving 5,000 customers and 46 public facilities in Likino-Dulyovo and Orekhovo-Zuyevo without power.[25]

Ukrainian forces likely targeted another Wildberries facility in Moscow Oblast on August 18. Astra reported that Ukrainian forces likely struck a Wildberries logistics facility at Atlant-Park in Obukhovo but that the facility did not catch fire.[26] Ukrainian forces struck another Wildberries warehouse in Podolsk, Moscow Oblast (roughly 420 kilometers from the international border) overnight on August 15 to 16.[27]

Satellite imagery provided an updated battle damage assessment (BDA) of a recent Ukrainian strike against strategic bomber infrastructure in Samara Oblast. Satellite imagery captured on August 15 shows that Ukraine’s August 14 to 15 strikes against the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara City (roughly 1,488 kilometers from the international border) hit Building 106A, which is reportedly responsible for modernizing Tu-95 bombers, two times.[28]

Daily Ukraine map thread for Tuesday 18th August 2026

A focus on the Kramatorsk and Slovyansk area today, where we're not talking about the land gains that Russian forces have managed pushing westwards this year, but instead about the ever increasing drone presence here in the… pic.twitter.com/SoDtnser3O

— Ukraine Control Map (@UAControlMap) August 18, 2026

“You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.”
Marcus Aurelius

The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to August 18, 2026. pic.twitter.com/jHyWSC3r6z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 18, 2026

⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — AUG 18, 2026

■ Fewer casualties despite increased engagements; Liveuamap reports 🇺🇦 advances near Oleksandrivka (however, the total occupied area increased by 18 km²)
■ Losses of ground robotic systems at a record high
■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks:… pic.twitter.com/I267dPtjap

— Ragnar Gudmundsson 🇮🇸🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur) August 18, 2026

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Operational update as of 10:00 p.m. on August 18, 2026, regarding the Russian invasion.

In total, 192 combat engagements have taken place since the start of this 24-hour period. The aggressor carried out 64 airstrikes using 213 guided bombs, deployed 7,033 kamikaze drones for attacks, and fired 2,263 rounds at the positions of our troops and populated areas.

• In the Northern Slobozhanshchyna and Kursk sectors, eight combat engagements have taken place since the start of the day; the enemy carried out 47 shelling attacks on the positions of our troops and populated areas, two of which involved the use of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
• Over the past 24 hours, in the Southern Slobozhansky direction, the enemy launched three assaults on our units’ positions near the settlements of Izbytske and Dovzhanka. One of these assaults is still ongoing.
• In the Kupiansk sector, the enemy carried out one attack toward Novoosynove.

Two attempts by the invaders to advance were repelled in the Lyman sector toward the town of Lyman.

• In the Sloviansk sector, the Defense Forces halted 10 attempts by the invaders to advance in the areas around the settlements of Riznykivka, Kryva Luka, and Zakytne, as well as toward Rai-Oleksandrivka and Mykolaivka. One engagement is still ongoing.
• In the Kramatorsk sector, Russian invaders carried out one assault toward Izhevka.
• In the Kostiantynivka sector, the Defense Forces repelled 12 enemy assaults in the areas around the settlements of Kostiantynivka, Novoselivka, and Sofiivka, as well as toward the settlements of Dovha Balka and Stepanivka. One firefight is still ongoing.
• The enemy carried out sixteen attacks in the Pokrovsk direction. The occupiers attempted to advance in the areas around the settlements of Udachne and Novooleksandrivka, as well as toward the settlements of Bilytske, Novyi Donbas, Shevchenko, Serhiivka, Vasylivka, and Myrne. Four firefights are still ongoing.

According to preliminary estimates, 38 occupiers were killed and 20 wounded here today; six vehicles, three artillery systems, one fuel and lubricants depot, and 29 enemy personnel shelters were destroyed. Four vehicles, one cannon, two special equipment units, five UAV control stations, and 111 enemy personnel shelters were damaged. A total of 336 unmanned aerial vehicles of various types were destroyed or neutralized.

• In the Oleksandrivka sector, the enemy launched an attack toward Novozhorzhia.
• In the Huliaipole sector, the Defense Forces repelled 11 enemy attacks directed at the settlements of Novoselivka, Rivne, Dobropillia, Zaliznychne, Lisne, and Charivne. One of these attacks is still ongoing.
• In the Orikhiv sector, our defenders halted one enemy attempt to advance in the Plavny area.
• In the Dnipro sector, the enemy did not conduct any offensive operations.
• In other sectors, there were no significant changes in the situation.

Let’s defeat the enemy and bring our Victory closer!

Glory to Ukraine!

Andrey Klepach provided an assessment of Russia’s economic and geopolitical challenges to the Moscow Exchange’s Nikitsky Club on May 21, concluding that the Russian war economy is stagnating as high defense spending, restrictive monetary policy, sanctions, and Ukrainian strikes constrain growth and investment.[1]

Independent Russian media outlet the Moscow Times reported on Klepach’s assessment on August 14, and other Russian media outlets circulated his statements on August 15.[2]

Independent Russian media outlet the Bell reported on August 16, citing a source close to Klepach, that VEB Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Igor Shuvalov fired Klepach that day after a “call from above,” and another source confirmed that Klepach’s dismissal was related to his economic assessment.[3] the Bell noted that Klepach served as the chief economist of VEB for 12 years and as a deputy minister of economic development for six years before that. He served in that capacity under Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina and current Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov while they were ministers of economic development.

Klepach stated in his May 21 assessment that Russia can sustain a war of attrition without collapsing but that it cannot do so without risking a social crisis and falling further behind the United States, China, and Ukraine economically and technologically.

Klepach stated that Ukrainian strikes against Russian port, petroleum, chemical, and logistics infrastructure are a noticeable macroeconomic barrier to Russian economic expansion, which he notes will likely slow to near-zero annual growth in 2026.

Klepach stated that Russia’s high defense spending and tight monetary policy, likely referring to the high key interest rate that peaked at 21 percent in June 2025 and currently stands at 14 percent, are ”squeezing” the economy, assessing that investment will decline by 2.5 percent in real terms in 2026 and will likely see no growth in 2027.[4]

The Kremlin continues to pressure the Central Bank to reduce the key interest rate to project economic stability and expand the capital available to the Russian defense industry despite ongoing fiscal inflationary pressures.

Putin clearly articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine relying on protracted attritional warfare at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 7, 2024.[5]

Putin’s theory of the case assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances indefinitely; prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations; and that Russia can prevail in a war of attrition by outlasting Ukrainian will and that of Ukraine’s external supporters.[6]

ISW has previously observed that Russia is increasingly struggling to sustain its method of waging a protracted attritional war, as losses exceed recruitment rates and financial and material costs rise, and that the Kremlin is exaggerating its tactical advances to present the appearance of continuous military gains.[7]

ISW has, in fact, assessed that the Russian military is systematically misinforming Putin about the state of the front line in part due to the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian armed forces that milbloggers refer to as “beautiful reports.”[8] Putin is likely more aware of Russia’s economic problems than he is of the military situation but determined to similarly present an appearance of economic stability despite evidence of Russia’s ongoing economic issues.[9]

There is considerable evidence that Klepach’s assessment of the Russian economic problems aligns with reality, undermining the validity of Putin’s theory of victory.

Key Takeaways

Russian state-owned bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) fired Chief Economist Andrey Klepach following media reports of a negative economic assessment he offered that contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory in Ukraine.
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There is considerable evidence that Klepach’s assessment of the Russian economic problems aligns with reality, undermining the validity of Putin’s theory of victory.
The Russian population is also reacting to the perception of economic decline in ways that may further damage Russian economic and fiscal policy.
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The Kremlin continues reiterating its determination to prevent Russia’s deteriorating economic realities from reducing its maximalist war aims by refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations to end the war.
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Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated on August 18 that Russia deliberately launches some of its drones into Moldovan and NATO airspace.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted Acting Defense Minister Yevheniy Khmara’s candidacy as defense minister for Verkhovna Rada’s (Parliament) approval on August 18.
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Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.
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Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russia on the night of August 17 to 18.
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Russia launched 147 drones against Ukraine overnight.    

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