A poll fielded July 28 and 29 by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found U.S. Representative Shomari Figures, D-Alabama, and Republican nominee Rhett Marques tied in the race to represent Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District.

Marques secured the Republican nomination last week with a majority of the vote in the special August 11 primary. As the incumbent, Figures did not face a primary challenger. After the primary, both the DCCC and the National Republican Congressional Committee have begun to intervene more in the hotly contested race, which will almost certainly be the most competitive congressional race in Alabama this year.

In 2024, Figures handily defeated his Republican opponent, Caroleene Dobson, receiving 54.6 percent of the vote. However, following the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, the 2nd District was redrawn. Fewer than three-fifths of voters inside its new boundaries were in the 2nd District in 2024.

With 421 respondents, both Figures and Marques received 46 percent of the vote in the poll. Eight percent of voters polled remained undecided. The poll also found that Democratic nominee for governor Doug Jones is running 3 points ahead of Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville in the district.

An earlier poll, conducted in late June and also sponsored by the DCCC, found Figures and Marques essentially tied as well.

“Multiple public polls make it clear: this is a toss up race, plain and simple,” DCCC spokesperson Eli Cousin said in a public statement on the new poll. “While Shomari Figures shows up and delivers for the people of Alabama, his opponent Rhett Marques has been supporting tax increases and policies that raise prices on working people.”

“That clear contrast is why Congressman Figures is drawing support from both Republicans and Democrats in every corner of Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District as he builds the coalition needed to win in November,” Cousin added.

Campaigns’ internal polls and polls sponsored by partisan organizations tend to overrate their candidates’ support.

However, national “generic ballot” polling, in which voters are asked whether they would vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate, suggests that 2026 could be a blue wave election. The Decision Desk HQ polling average has Democrats with a 6-point advantage on this measure.

By one measure, the redrawn 2nd District is 7 points more Republican than the nation. But despite this definite partisan lean, if November is a blue wave and Democrats outperform their 2024 results by several percentage points, Figures could still hold on to his seat.

Figures’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment from APR. This story will be updated if the campaign responds.