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As crises become more complex, less predictable, and increasingly intertwined, the global system is no longer anchored by shared rules and norms. In a world where the very idea of order has collapsed, governments must learn to navigate radical uncertainty rather than chasing lost anchors of stability.

BERLIN—The US-Israeli strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and launched the United States’ most consequential Middle Eastern adventure since the Iraq War caught many in Europe off guard. Confronted with a series of cascading crises—from a 1970s-style oil shock to a transatlantic rupture threatening Europe’s security architecture—many analysts have reached the same conclusion: the conflict represents a breakdown of the multilateral system and heralds an era of global disorder.