India is strengthening efforts to improve monsoon forecasting, climate research and extreme weather prediction through expanded modeling, observation networks and international collaboration, according to a parliamentary response from the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

Recent studies cited in the response highlight increasing frequency of deep convective clouds and more intense, short-duration rainfall events across the Indian subcontinent. Research also shows a rise in extreme rainfall events alongside a decline in moderate rainfall over central India, reflecting broader shifts linked to climate change.

The government’s Mission Mausam program is central to the government’s efforts, focusing on integrating climate modeling, satellite observations and atmospheric research to better understand monsoon variability and associated extreme weather. Key measures include the adoption of advanced multi-model ensemble systems for long-range forecasting and continuous upgrades to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including higher spatial resolution and improved data assimilation.

The initiative also includes expansion of India’s meteorological observation network through additional Doppler weather radars, lightning detection systems, automatic weather stations and rain gauges. Satellite-based observations are being enhanced through both domestic and international data sources, with the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) assimilating near-real-time data from agencies including NASA, NOAA, ESA, CMA, KMA, and JMA, alongside Indian providers.

At the local level, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has developed the Panchayat Mausam Seva Portal, delivering village-level forecasts and advisories through platforms such as e-GramSwaraj and mobile applications. Integration with local governance networks and messaging platforms supports last-mile dissemination of weather information.

NCMRWF has also developed high-resolution climate reanalysis datasets, including a global dataset covering 1992–2018 at 25km resolution and a regional dataset spanning 1979–2020 at 12km resolution. These datasets are used for climate diagnostics, variability studies and the development of AI and machine learning applications.

Further developments under Mission Mausam include investment in high-performance computing, next-generation radar systems and data-driven forecasting methods. Collaborative research with academic institutions, including the Indian Institutes of Technology, and participation in World Meteorological Organization programs are also supporting advancements in monsoon science.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology is upgrading its seasonal prediction system with new oceanic flux models and land-surface components, aimed at improving the accuracy of both national rainfall forecasts and extreme weather predictions during the monsoon season.

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