Disproportionately heavy rain is indicated for entire eastern half of India into the week as a projected deep depression/remnant wends its way towards north after being blocked to west by withdrawing monsoon. | Photo Credit: www.windy.com

Monday’s depression over west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal is closing in on the north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coast for landfall, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expecting it to intensify into a deep depression, one rung below a cyclone, by Tuesday midnight or early Wednesday.

The system was located about 180 km south-southeast of Gopalpur, 180 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam, 210 km south of Puri and 270 km east of Visakhapatnam, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an evening update on Tuesday.

It is expected to move west-north-west, intensify further and cross the coast between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur by Wednesday night, retaining deep-depression strength at landfall. This happens as the prevailing monsoon exits from the north-west, creating a sharp contrast between a season winding down over land and a late-season system gathering strength over the Bay.

Advancing withdrawal line was positioned on Tuesday along Jaisalmer-Nagaur-Sikar-Rohtak-Patiala-Gurdaspur extending from Rajasthan into Punjab, Chandigarh and Delhi. The IMD said conditions remain favourable for it to advance further over next two days into remaining parts of these areas and into Saurashtra and Kutch; Jammu and Kashmir; Himachal Pradesh; Uttarakhand; and West Uttar Pradesh.

But the Bay depression could temporarily hold the advancing withdrawal at bay, as its circulation pumps moisture deep into the peninsula and Central India. While the monsoon retreats from the country’s north-western flank, its late-season circulation could still generate a fresh spell of widespread rain far inland.

The system is expected to retain its deep-depression status even after crossing the coast, potentially remaining so until Thursday midnight .That would give it nearly a day over Bay waters and another day over the immediate hinterland after landfall. The result is likely to be rough seas, strong winds and heavy to very heavy rain. 

The IMD has already alerted the Chief Secretaries of Odisha; West Bengal; Andhra Pradesh; Jharkhand; Chhattisgarh; Madhya Pradesh; Maharashtra; and Puducherry as to the impending spell of rough weather over the sea and adjoining land areas.

South Odisha is expected to bear the brunt initially, with heavy to very heavy and isolated extremely heavy rain for another two days. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast on Friday, followed by heavy rain on Saturday. The heaviest rain could develop over a broad zone linking Kalimela; Kirandul; Srikakulam; Jagdalpur; and Umerkote, straddling southern Odisha; north Andhra Pradesh; and adjoining Chhattisgarh.

Farther north, the remnants of the system could interact with a resident western disturbance, potentially creating another heavy-rain belt extending through Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and south-west and East Uttar Pradesh before crossing into Nepal over the weekend.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) also points to north Andhra Pradesh; Chhattisgarh; and parts of Odisha and West Bengal as areas vulnerable to heavy rain. A second potential rain zone could emerge around Lucknow; Faizabad; Sitapur; and Bahraich in Uttar Pradesh, extending towards the Himalayan foothills and into Nepal.

Apart from the core storm zone, heavy rain is indicated at several locations stretching from the Andhra Pradesh coast through Odisha and West Bengal into Central India and eastern flanks of parts of North-West India. Places on watch include Srikakulam; Brahmapuram; Bhubaneswar; Bhadrak; Haldia; Kharagpur; Raipur; Gondia; Mandla; Shahdol; Katni; Damoh; Panna; Banda; and Orai. 

Published on September 22, 2026