CAIRO, EGYPT — Wheat production continues to steadily increase as a record output of 10 million tonnes is forecast in the 2026-27 marketing year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS estimates a 23% decrease in Egypt’s wheat imports for 2026-27 to 12 million tonnes, due to the increased domestic production and excess carryover stocks for its strategic reserves. If realized, it would be Egypt’s lowest import total since 2022-23.

The increased production reflects a larger harvested area of 1.5 million hectares, compared with 1.33 million in 2025-26.

“The expanded harvested area in 2026-27 stems from the Government of Egypt’s (GOE) dual strategy of horizontal and vertical growth — that is, both expanding the land devoted to wheat cultivation and boosting yields on existing acreage,” the FAS said. “To support this, the Agricultural Research Center is encouraging wider adoption of raised bed cultivation techniques, utilizing early maturing, high-yielding wheat varieties, and expanding distribution of certified seeds to growers.”

 Elevated government procurement prices have further motivated farmers to increase wheat plantings, the FAS said, noting that the price hike was driven by Egypt’s efforts to build up strategic wheat reserves and reinforce national food security considering regional instability tied to the Iran conflict.

Wheat consumption in Egypt is projected to reach 20.7 million tonnes, up by almost 0.5% from last year, the FAS said.

“This is due to a 100,000-tonne increase in food, seed, and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) consumption,” the FAS said. “The rise in FSI wheat consumption is primarily attributed to population growth. Egypt ranks among the world’s largest wheat consumers, with consumption driven by the country’s population of over 108 million people, according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.”

In addition to the local population, Egypt is host to an estimated 10 million migrants, refugees and asylum seekers, the FAS said.

The report also noted that wheat flour exports in 2026-27 are estimated at 1.4 million tonnes, up by approximately 17% from the previous year due to expansion plans into new markets in Africa. Egypt’s top five export destinations in 2025-26 were Somalia, Yemen, Sudan and Eritrea.

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Arvin Donley is editor of World Grain. He has been at Sosland Publishing Company since 2005, covering the grain, milling and feed industries. He is a 1989 graduate of the William Allen White School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Kansas.

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