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Live: Can Constellation Brands Rally After Q2 Earnings Tonight?

Дата публикации: 06-10-2026 17:55:30

Constellation Brands reports Q2 earnings today after a brutal year that erased nearly 17% of its stock value, and tonight investors find out whether Modelo's stumble and tightening margins have finally been priced in or whether more pain is coming.

Основное содержимое страницы с новостью.

Coverage ended 16 updates · Last at 4:40pm ET

By Thomas Richmond · Updated Oct 6, 4:40pm ET · Published Oct 6, 1:55pm ET

Live Updates

Newest first

4:40pm ET

That wraps up our initial coverage of Constellation Brands’ Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

Tune in to the company’s earnings call tomorrow, October 7, at 8 AM ET for more updates.

4:30pm ET

EPS

$3.74

est $3.55 +5.3%

Revenue

$2.63B

est $2.54B +3.7%

A fourth straight quarter of beating EPS estimates, powered by 5.5% beer shipment volume growth and a Wine and Spirits segment that swung to an operating profit from a year-ago loss. Management reaffirmed comparable fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90, a firmer footing for a stock that has been trading near 52-week lows.

4:29pm ET

Make it six beats in seven quarters: the $3.74 adjusted EPS comes in above expectations of $3.55, a wider margin than the 6.9% surprise management delivered in Q1 FY2027. The management credibility question now shifts to the FY2027 guidance range of $11.20 to $11.90, which straddles the $11.71 Street number.

4:28pm ET

While beer gets most of the attention, Constellation’s Wine & Spirits segment delivered arguably the quarter’s biggest turnaround.

Revenue soared 17% to $159.4 million, depletions jumped 10.2%, and shipments climbed 15.4%.

More importantly, the segment swung from a $19.8 million operating loss last year to a $6.1 million profit this quarter. Mi CAMPO depletions soared roughly 51%, while Kim Crawford grew around 11%.

It’s still a small piece of Constellation, but the turnaround is finally showing up in the numbers.

4:25pm ET

Constellation’s Beer operating income rose just 1% to $964.2 million despite 5% sales growth, while operating margin contracted 160 basis points to 39.0%.

And the second half of the year could get tougher.

Management expects beer operating margins of just 34.5% to 35.5% in H2, with Q3 marketing spending set to exceed 11% of sales.

That helps explain why Constellation stock is down 5% after Q2 earnings despite an earnings beat.

4:20pm ET

Constellation Brands beat expectations in Q2, but the numbers underneath its beer business were more mixed.

Beer revenue rose 5% to $2.47 billion as shipments jumped 5.5%, yet consumer depletions actually fell 0.6%.

The weakness hit Constellation’s two biggest names, Modelo and Corona. Modelo Especial depletions fell roughly 2% while Corona Extra dropped about 5%.

Pacifico was the standout, growing roughly 19%, but Constellation will need its flagship brands to stabilize if beer growth is going to accelerate from here.

4:10pm ET

Constellation Brands just reported Q2 earnings, with shares initially flat following the report. Here are the key numbers:

  • Revenue: $2.63B vs. $2.54B expected
  • Adjusted EPS: $3.74 vs. $3.55 expected

Guidance:

  • FY2027 Adjusted EPS: $11.20–$11.90 vs. $11.71 expected
  • Organic Revenue Growth: -1% to +1%
  • Adjusted Operating Margin: 32%–33%
  • Free Cash Flow: $1.6B–$1.7B

Quick Read:

  • Constellation beat on both lines, with revenue 3.5% above estimates and adjusted EPS beating by 5.4%.
  • Beer revenue grew 5%, but depletions fell 0.6% and beer operating margin contracted 160 basis points to 39.0%.
  • Management reaffirmed its FY2027 outlook, including adjusted EPS of $11.20–$11.90.

3:50pm ET

This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically.

We expect Constellation Brands to release Q2 earnings shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.

3:48pm ET

Support & resistance · chart through Tue, Oct 6
  • R2$139.06+19.8%
  • R1$135.84+17.1%
  • Now$116.05
  • S1$111.54-3.9%

50-day avg$126.41-8.2% below

200-day avg$142.98-18.8% below

52-week range$110.60 – $168.60

At $116.05, $STZ stock sits less than $6 above its $110.60 52-week low, so the $111.54 support line matters tonight. Reclaiming anything meaningful means a long climb back to the $126.41 50-day average, with the $135.84 resistance shelf well above that.

3:46pm ET

$836Macross 11 tracked filers

6 added · 2 trimmed · 2 new · 3 exited

  • Point72 Asset Management LP$343M+0.3%
  • Balyasny Asset Management LP$185M-0.4%
  • Millennium Management LLC$136M+3.0%
  • Marshall Wace LLP$123M—
  • Gotham Asset Management LLC$20M-0.5%
  • Tudor Investment Corp$11M—
  • D. E. Shaw & Co Inc$7M+0.9%
  • Two Sigma Investments LLC$4MNew

+ 6 more tracked holders

As of Jun 30, 2026 quarter end · 13F disclosures lag ~45 days — long positions only, tracked filers only.

Six hedge funds added to Constellation Brands while just two trimmed, per positions disclosed as of the June 30 quarter-end, so roughly 45 days stale and well before tonight's earnings report. Point72 Asset Management carried the largest stake in that group, though three hedge funds exited entirely.

3:42pm ET

$10.44BNet debt

Cash $97M · Debt $10.53B · Equity $8.26B · Current ratio 0.91×

Constellation Brands carries roughly $10.5 billion in debt against $97 million of cash as of Q2 FY2026, so free cash flow will likely go to lenders and share buybacks before anything else. Debt has come down about $1.6 billion from the Q3 FY2024 peak, and equity keeps building, but with the current ratio back below 1, a soft beer quarter leaves little slack for management to lean on.

Net cash by quarter

$-10B$-11B$-12B

3:34pm ET

Put/call 0.46Calls dominant

CallsPuts

ATM implied vol63%

ExpiryFri, Oct 9chain as of Mon, Oct 5

Call positioning dominates ahead of tonight's earnings report. A 0.46 put/call ratio means calls outnumber puts more than two to one, with the heaviest call open interest stacked at the 116 strike just above the 114 at-the-money line. That skew sits on a stock already beaten down, and 63% at-the-money implied volatility on Friday expiry says a large move is priced in.

Open interest near the money · puts / calls
  • $1115 / 2
  • $112217 / 39
  • $113220 / 73
  • $11427 / 46
  • $115111 / 82
  • $116102 / 119

3:32pm ET

EPS$3.43vs $3.21 est +6.9%

Revenue$2.43Bvs $2.39B est +1.7%

Constellation Brands cleared both lines in Q1 FY2027, proof that cost discipline can carry the quarter even when beer demand stays soft. The problem is that the stock is down about 20% since then, so tonight's report has to show depletion trends stabilizing.

next print Tue, Oct 6

3:30pm ET

ReportsTue, Oct 6After close

Consensus EPS$3.55

Consensus revenue$2.54B

A $19.7 billion market cap puts a steep discount on Constellation Brands, so tonight's earnings report has to show Modelo and Corona depletions stabilizing. Constellation Brands has cleared the bar in five of its last six quarters, and the stock rose after each of the last three, which raises the cost of a stumble here.

What to watch

  • Beer depletion trends and whether shipments still lag sell-through
  • Operating margin guidance for the beer segment
  • Any update to the full-year fiscal 2027 outlook
  • Wine and spirits divestiture progress
EPS surprise vs consensus Beat 5 of last 6
  • Q4 FY2025+15.9%
  • Q1 FY2026-2.1%
  • Q2 FY2026+9.3%
  • Q3 FY2026+15.9%
  • Q4 FY2026+11.1%
  • Q1 FY2027+6.9%
Earnings-day stock move · last 3 reports
  • Q2 FY2026+1.0%
  • Q3 FY2026+5.3%
  • Q4 FY2026+8.5%

3:24pm ET

Tue, Oct 6 Earnings call · after close

Analysts pressed management on beer operating margins and depletion trends on three straight earnings calls, and the Hispanic consumer slowdown sits underneath both. Whether depletions stabilized is the answer most likely to set the after-hours move on tonight's 4:05 PM ET report, with Veracruz capacity spending and Corona and Modelo brand commentary close behind.

Analyst hot topics · last 4 calls

Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27

  • Beer operating margins & targets
  • Beer volume & depletion trends
  • Hispanic consumer & macro headwinds
  • CAPEX & Veracruz capacity expansion
  • Corona & Modelo brand performance
  • Beer distribution & inventory levels

1:48pm ET

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) reports fiscal Q2 earnings at 4:05 PM ET today, with Wall Street expecting roughly $3.55 per share. That would be below the $3.63 reported a year ago, while estimates have been trending lower ahead of the print.

Expectations are already low. Constellation shares have been under pressure heading into earnings as investors worry about softer beer demand and margin pressure.

Management has also warned of higher costs, while its current full-year outlook calls for beer sales ranging from a 1% decline to 1% growth and beer operating margins of 37% to 38%.

That makes tonight’s report an important test of whether bad news is finally priced in. Constellation now trades at roughly 11 times trailing earnings and carries a dividend yield around 3.6% and free cash flow yield near 9.5%.

If Modelo and the broader beer portfolio show signs of stabilization while margins hold up, even a modestly positive report could give investors a reason to reconsider the stock’s depressed valuation.

Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.

Full Coverage

The story so far

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ | STZ Price Prediction) is expected to report fiscal second-quarter 2027 results at 4:05 PM ET with the earnings call scheduled for tomorrow, October 7, at 8:00 AM ET. Shares are down 16.69% over the past year, so this summer-quarter report will show whether beer growth can hold up.

Beat Streak Meets a Skeptical Market

Last quarter, Constellation beat EPS estimates by posting $3.43, ahead of the $3.21 estimate. Revenue of $2.43B also exceeded forecasts, even though it fell 3.3% YoY after the 2025 wine divestitures. Organic net sales rose 3%, and free cash flow climbed 9% to $484.6M.

The stock still slid 3.24% in the week after the report and now trades at $115.06, about 11 times earnings. Management confirmed comparable EPS guidance of $11.20 to $11.90 for the year. CEO Nicholas Fink reported, “Despite a discerning and value-conscious consumer environment, we grew Enterprise organic net sales and gained share during the first quarter of fiscal 2027.”

Consensus Estimates
Metric Q2 FY2027 Estimate YoY Change FY2027 Estimate FY2028 Estimate
Revenue $2.54B +2.4% $9.09B $9.25B
EPS (Normalized) $3.5501 -2.2% $11.7279 $12.2690

Revenue is forecast to grow while EPS contracts, which lines up with the margin pressure management warned about. The quarterly EPS estimate has drifted down from its $3.70 mark 90 days earlier to $3.55. The full-year consensus still remains inside management’s guidance range.

What I’m Watching Tonight: Margins, Modelo, and Guidance

Here are some of the key items I’m watching tonight in Constellation Brands’ Q2 report:

  1. Beer margins. First-quarter beer gross margin reached 39%, but operating margin fell 10 basis points. Management said operating margins face more pressure in Q2 and Q3 as World Cup, college football, and NFL marketing ramps up. The focus will be whether beer margins stay on track for the 37%-38% full-year guide.
  2. Brand mix. Pacifico depletions rose about 21% and Victoria about 14%. Over the same quarter, Modelo Especial fell 2%, and Corona Extra dropped more than 5%. Fink pointed to a “significant gap to distribution” for Modelo, and new sales leader Jack Edwards is now responsible for closing that gap.
  3. Consumer health. Demand was strong in March, then weakened in April and May as gas prices rose. Texas and Florida stayed difficult markets. Consumer sentiment fell to 51.7 in August from 55.2 in July.
  4. Shipments and guidance. First-quarter shipments ran ahead of depletions, so the two need to move back in line. This quarter is compared against last year’s 7% drop in beer net sales. Analysts will watch whether management restores the FY2028 outlook it withdrew in April.
Earnings History
Quarter EPS Surprise Earnings-Day Move 7-Day Move 30-Day Move
Q1 FY2027 +6.93% -1.59% -3.24% -4.03%
Q4 FY2026 +11.11% +8.53% +0.72% -12.67%
Q3 FY2026 +15.91% +5.32% +7.29% +11.94%
Q2 FY2026 +9.34% +1.03% +0.78% -8.7%

On average, shares moved 1.39% seven days after earnings over the past year.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Thomas Richmond

Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 500 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.

Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.

Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.

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