Las Vegas Review-Journal

October 9, 2026 - 9:00 pm

Math may not be popular, but it remains undefeated. That’s a problem when it comes to Social Security.

The Congressional Budget Office recently released its new long-term projections for Social Security. It shows that its trust fund will run out of money in 2032. Last year, Social Security collected tax revenues of more than $1.1 trillion. That was equivalent to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product. Combined with its other earnings, Social Security’s total income was around $1.25 trillion. That’s a lot of money.

But Social Security payouts exceeded collections. Its costs in 2025 were around $1.45 trillion. Its reserves dropped by $200 billion.

Under the law, benefit cuts are triggered if Social Security runs out of money. The CBO estimates such a move would reduce payments by 26 percent. In future years, the reduction could increase to 40 percent. Political reality, however, makes that unlikely, raising the possibility that Congress will simply borrow more money to cover the shortfall.

Social Security is not like a 401(k). Your payroll contributions don’t go into an account with your name on it that earns interest or investment income until you retire and begin withdrawals. Instead, contributions go into a giant pot that the government spends immediately, either to pay out current benefits or to finance its deficit spending.

If someone in the private sector did the same, they would draw the ire of federal regulators and law enforcement.

Average recipients born in the 1950s are scheduled to receive $412,000 in lifetime benefits. If the cuts go into effect, their payable benefits will drop to $380,000. Average recipient born in the 1990s are scheduled to receive $578,000 in lifetime benefits. But because they’ll be alive for more years after the scheduled cuts, their benefits will be reduced to $415,000. All figures are in 2026 dollars.

Benefits also vary dramatically by income because they’re based on contributions. Someone born in the 1970s in the bottom quintile of household earnings is scheduled to receive $175,000 in lifetime benefits. Someone in that age range in the highest quintile of household earnings is scheduled to receive $671,000 in lifetime benefits.

Social Security’s problems have been obvious for decades. But it has been just as obvious that most voters prefer to live in fantasy land, egged by alarmist rhetoric from Democrats about potential reforms. Look at the response to then-President George W. Bush’s effort to reform Social Security in 2005. It was a valiant effort that would have benefited taxpayers and retirees.

But stopping reforms hasn’t fixed the problem. It’s just made the math more daunting. The day of reckoning keeps getting closer. The longer elected officials ignore this issue, the harder it gets to fix.