Danville Walker, general manager of Petrojam Ltd, said Jamaica will likely see stable fuel supplies and relatively contained fuel-price movements through the remainder of 2026.

That’s due to increased crude exports from the Middle East which are easing pressure on global oil markets. Additionally, the island sources the bulk of its supplies outside that region.

Walker, who took over leadership of the state-owned refinery in July, said recent increases in oil production from the Middle East have helped moderate price volatility despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.

“Going through to the end of the year, unless the situation changes, I am hopeful that there will be more stability in that region,” Walker said on Thursday. “What is clear is that more oil is coming out of that region and, if there’s more stability, the price of food will go down, and we can claw back some of the costs that we incurred to get us to this point.”

Walker made the remarks after participating in a panel discussion on geopolitics, supply-chain disruptions, and the economy, during the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Jamaica 2026 Business Conference at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in Kingston.

Global oil prices have retreated from late-summer highs. Brent crude, the international benchmark, stood at about US$101 per barrel on October 5, after exceeding US$110 a barrel during parts of August amid concerns over conflict involving the United States, Iran and Israel and the potential impact on energy supplies.

The decline in crude prices has been mirrored, albeit with a lag, in Jamaica’s wholesale fuel market. Petrojam’s billing price for 87-octane gasoline stood at J$209.62 per litre on October 1, down from levels above J$220 earlier in the year, according to company data. Wholesale gasoline prices had climbed steadily through the second quarter before peaking during the summer when global oil markets were at their most volatile.

Walker said Jamaica’s fuel market remains adequately supplied.

“Absolutely there will be no shortage of fuel in Jamaica,” he said. “The price may fluctuate within a band. So I think, from that point, we can easily plan through to the rest of the year, unless there’s some major upheaval in the Middle East more so than what is there now.”

He said the conflict in the region increased shipping and logistics costs throughout the global petroleum trade, though those impacts often take months to filter through to local consumers.

Walker also argued that Jamaica’s improved fiscal position has allowed authorities to moderate the effect of sharp swings in international energy markets.

“Jamaica has been fortunate that we are in a fiscal space now, where we’re able to support the mitigation of some of these price increases through the mechanisms at Petrojam, and to shelter the country from the full ravaging effects of the oil price swings,” he said.

Economist Keenan Falconer, who also participated in the conference panel, said consumers may not yet have experienced the full inflationary impact of earlier oil-price spikes.

“I don’t think that the full effects of this war have been priced in,” Falconer said, noting that energy shocks typically take several months to work their way through the economy.

Jamaica’s inflation rate over 12-months reached 7.9 per cent to August, up from 7.5 per cent in July. Falconer said that oil-price increases earlier this year are still feeding through supply chains. Additional shocks that occurred between March and June could become more evident between December and the first quarter of next year, he said.

The recent pullback in crude prices and easing wholesale fuel costs suggest the worst of this year’s energy-price surge may have passed, subject to intervention by the USA in the Middle-East.

Luke.douglas@gleanerjm.com