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“We’re developing options for a second oil pipeline to the West Coast,” Carney said in the video.

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The message from the federal government surrounding oil and gas has shifted “like night and day,” in the past year, said Lail.

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As part of a follow-up agreement between the governments in May, Smith pledged Alberta would submit its pipeline application by the end of June. The two sides also reached an agreement on industrial carbon pricing.

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At the time, Ottawa said it would make its “best efforts” to provide a path that would enable necessary approvals needed to start building the pipeline by September 2027.

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While a route has not yet been revealed, Smith previously voiced support for a northern line that would ship oil to the Port of Prince Rupert area, but told the Herald last December that a southern route to Roberts Bank in Delta, south of Vancouver, was also being studied.

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Richard Masson, former CEO of the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC), believes a southern pipeline is more likely to advance than a northern one, given opposition from some coastal First Nations.

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“In my mind, the northern route doesn’t have the Indigenous support it needs to succeed,” said Masson, adding additional production will also be needed to support the proposal.

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“To have any kind of pipeline, you have to have shippers, and I don’t see them.”

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Richard Masson, chair of the World Petroleum Council Canada poses at the BMO Centre in Calgary on Friday, September 15, 2023. Jim Wells/Postmedia

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Talks between the two governments and the Oil Sands Alliance — a group of five large producers, including Cenovus Energy and Canadian Natural Resources — to build the carbon capture network, and increase oil production to fill a new pipeline, have continued in recent weeks.

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Industry leaders recently criticized Alberta’s industrial carbon tax, which will climb to an effective rate of $130 per tonne of emissions by 2040 under the MOU.

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However, there could be room for a deal with the oilsands producers, one that could potentially see the two governments take steps to incentivize more output.

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“I think the province is going to light a bonfire under this pipeline (proposal) and work hard to put it forward,” said Little.

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Oilsands production is expected to grow by about 500,000 bpd by the end of this decade, mainly coming from optimizing existing developments, said BMO Capital Markets analyst Randy Ollenberger.

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Future growth projects could theoretically add another half-a-million bpd of output by 2035, although those developments haven’t been sanctioned yet, he said.

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There are already about 1.2 million bpd of identified pipeline expansion plans in the works in Canada, excluding the province’s West Coast proposal.

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Former Alberta energy minister Sonya Savage said this week she will be looking for specifics about the pipeline proposal, but anticipates it will take time to sort out all the details required for the major development.

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“I don’t know how far advanced it’s going to be,” she said. “If it takes longer, that’s OK. These things take time.”

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