Summary of Miami’s hurricane activity over the past century, filtered by ENSO phase.
Of the 60 hurricanes that passed within 200 miles of the city (close enough to be interest), 11 of them occurred during El Niño… the strongest of which were in 1929 and 2004.

Early outlooks for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are already split, and the main culprit is a brewing Super El Niño that could collide with a very warm Atlantic. Colorado State University (CSU) is leaning toward a somewhat below‑normal season, while the University of Arizona is solidly in “above average” territory. AccuWeather lands in the middle, with a near‑ to slightly below‑normal basin but a clear reminder that U.S. landfall risk remains very real.

CSU Vs. Average Hurricanes

CSU: El Niño takes the edge off

CSU’s April forecast calls for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE of about 90—roughly 75% of the 1991–2020 average. Their discussion leans heavily on the expectation of a robust El Niño developing and strengthening through summer and into the peak of the season. El Niño typically ramps up mid‑ and upper‑level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, disrupting the vertical structure of developing storms and trimming overall numbers.

CSU also notes that while parts of the Atlantic are warmer than average, especially closer to the western basin, the broader main development region (MDR) is not as explosively warm as in some recent hyperactive years. Put together, they see 2026 as a season that is likely less busy than 2023, and less active than the long‑term average, even though “below normal” still includes multiple hurricanes and majors.

CSU Forecast for 2026

Arizona: warm Atlantic wins the tug‑of‑war

CSU Vs. Arizona hurricane season 2026.

The University of Arizona is looking at the same climate chessboard and seeing a very different game. Their April forecast calls for 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE around 155—well above the median. Their modeling system blends a dynamical atmosphere model with machine learning that digests past season patterns, and it places more weight on how anomalously warm the Atlantic is likely to remain.

Arizona’s team explicitly argues that very high Atlantic sea‑surface temperatures (especially across the MDR) will offset a good chunk of El Niño’s hostile shear. In their view, the basin may lose a few storms to stronger winds aloft, but the ones that do form will have plenty of warm water and latent heat to work with, keeping activity comfortably above average.

AccuWeather: middle ground, clear risks

AccuWeather’s early outlook straddles those two camps: 11–16 named storms, 4–7 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes, with a clear expectation that El Niño will tamp down late‑season activity. They highlight stronger shear in the second half of the season and suggest that 2026 should end up near or a bit below the historical average for total storm counts.

But they also stress that very warm Atlantic waters can still support rapid intensification close to land, and they flag the northern and northeastern Gulf and the Carolinas as particular hot spots for potential impacts this year. Their bottom‑line bullet points include the line every coastal resident should memorize: “It only takes one storm.”

Super El Niño vs. super‑warm Atlantic

Under the hood, all three outlooks are wrestling with the same tug‑of‑war: a Pacific that may surge into strong or even “super” El Niño territory versus an Atlantic that refuses to cool off. El Niño is a proven hurricane suppressor on a basin‑wide scale, but 2023 reminded everyone that a very warm Atlantic can keep storm counts elevated even in an El Niño year.

Most Likely…

• Don’t hang your hopes on one climate “knob” like El Niño; warm Atlantic water, intraseasonal waves, and local shear pockets all matter.
• “Below‑normal” does not mean “low risk,” because landfall is about track timing and luck, not seasonal totals.
• New tools—like AI and alternative seasonal methods—are exciting, but they add perspective, not certainty.

DeepMind: AI’s second big test

One of those new tools is Google DeepMind’s AI‑driven hurricane model, which turned a lot of heads in 2025. Independent evaluations found that DeepMind’s system often matched or beat top operational models on track and intensity, with standout forecasts for storms like Hurricane Erin and Tropical Storm Imelda when traditional guidance struggled.

DeepMind’s big advantage is speed (15‑day predictions in about a minute) and its ability to recognize complex pattern analogs from huge historical datasets rather than solving the full fluid‑dynamics equations. In 2026, with the basin caught between a warming Pacific and a hot Atlantic, forecasters will be watching closely to see whether AI maintains that edge in a different large‑scale regime. You can expect NHC and private‑sector meteorologists to pull AI guidance into the mix anytime a high‑impact U.S. threat emerges.

Our Take: Plan for the Big One, Not the Average

CSU says “somewhat below‑normal,” Arizona says “solidly above‑normal,” and AccuWeather says “near to slightly below‑normal but still risky.” They’re all looking at the same atmosphere and ocean, and they all agree on one thing: the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will produce storms capable of doing serious damage somewhere.

From our perspective, the smart play is to enjoy any El Niño‑driven reduction in overall numbers without letting your guard down. Warm Atlantic water, coastal rapid intensification, and a single well‑placed landfall can turn a “quiet” season into a generational disaster for one city. AI tools like DeepMind might help sharpen the forecasts when it really counts, but they don’t change the fundamental math for people on the ground: if you live on the coast or along hurricane‑prone inland corridors, you prepare every year as if this is the one that finally tests your plan.