Published July 9, 2026 at 4:03 PM MDT

This year’s already strong El Niño is strengthening, a trend with potentially significant implications for the intense – and now tragic – fire season.

During El Niño, Pacific Ocean temperatures around the equator are above normal. The weather effects are felt around the world, and in the American West, they vary regionally.

Clark University climatologist Abby Frazier said they often bring more moisture to the Southwest, which can reduce fire risk in the short term. Longer term, she cautioned, that moisture spurs the growth of grasses that can ultimately dry and burn.

“A little bit further north and inland, El Niño is likely going to bring drier, warmer conditions,” she said. “Putting that into potential fire danger: drier and warmer may lead to more wildfire risk.”

“A hot and dry start to July is expected,” the most recent federal fire risk forecast reads. “Afterward, the warmest and driest conditions will shift to the northern and western areas of the Great Basin later in the summer as a strong El Niño unfolds, and pulses of monsoon moisture may start to move into the eastern Great Basin mid- to late-July.”

A broad swath from Western Colorado to the Pacific Northwest is expected to have above-average risk of significant wildfire through the end of August, according to the monthly forecast. After that, just the Northwest will remain at higher risk, and by October, normal risk is expected for the entire country.

Frazier emphasized that El Niño’s effects are in addition to climate change’s increasingly dramatic impacts.

“This natural cycle is acting on top of our already very, very warm atmosphere that has been changing very quickly,” she added. “We're already in a summer where things are very hot.”

This story was produced by the Mountain West News Bureau, a collaboration between Boise State Public Radio, Wyoming Public Media, Nevada Public Radio, KUNR in Nevada, KUNC in Northern Colorado, KANW in New Mexico, Colorado Public Radio and KJZZ in Arizona as well as NPR, with support from affiliate newsrooms across the region. Funding for the Mountain West News Bureau is provided in part by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and Eric and Wendy Schmidt.