Simon Nemec of the New Jersey Devils reacts during the third period against the Washington Capitals at Prudential Center earlier this year. Photo by Elsa /Getty Images

Article content

The Simon Nemec acquisition is probably Craig Conroy’s biggest gamble as the Calgary Flames GM to date.

Article content

The acquisition cost was relatively high, including two conditional first-round picks, a second-round pick and defensive prospect Etienne Morin. That’s a decent chunk of draft capital for a rebuilding team to pay in the middle of their re-stock phase.

Article content

Article content

The majority of the risk lies with the player rather than the cost to acquire him, however.

Article content

Article content

Nemec, despite his draft pedigree, has struggled at the NHL level so far. This is not uncommon for younger defenders as they try to find their legs, especially guys who are more offensively oriented like Nemec.

Article content

Article content

However, this set the stage for a contentious RFA contract negotiation this summer. A lack of traction on the ice and a battle over role and opportunity with fellow young defender Luke Hughes prompted the Devils to make Nemec available for trade rather than duke it out with his agent all summer.

Article content

On the Flames’ side of the ledger, this meant striking a delicate balance with Nemec’s new contract. A bridge deal would have lowered short-term risk in the face of the player’s lack of playing time in Calgary and only a modest level of success in the NHL to date.

Article content

But that shifts the risk to the long-term should Nemec fulfill his potential, triggering a much bigger demand on his next deal two or three years down the road.

Article content

Alternatively, signing the player to a max, seven-year contract didn’t make much sense either. Buying UFA years can be very expensive, so if Nemec continues to fall short of expectations, it’s the kind of deal that would quickly become an albatross.

Article content

Article content

Article content

How much is Nemec’s contract?

Article content

The five-year, $7.25-million US AAV deal Conroy struck recently threads the needle between these two extremes. It bought a year of free agency from the player, securing him through the meaty part of his career arc between the ages of 22 and 27 years old. It also lowered the price tag that would have come with a longer commitment, but also reduced the risk of having to re-up at a bigger number sooner, should he have opted for the bridge instead.

Article content

At $7.25M a year, Nemec only has to become a competent second-pairing defender to be worth his dollars. We’ve begun to see rampant salary inflation due to the increasing salary cap, with young stars already demanding $12M-$17M per year.

Article content

Middle-rotation salaries are likely to land in Nemec’s $7M per year territory as a result. Even a modest step forward, which may be disappointing for some, would at least not render his contract an onerous one.

Article content

For Calgary, the addition can now go wrong in one of two ways.

Article content

First, Nemec continues to struggle with the defensive aspects of the game and can’t secure the trust of the coaching staff. A highly sheltered, third-pairing defender who scores 25-points a year isn’t worth seven bills, even with the cap going to $104 million. If Nemec runs in place for another season or two, he’ll firmly enter the “bust” conversation.