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SpaceX
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NASA
СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAIdentifying the causal effect of agricultural production conditions on food prices is challenging because commodity prices respond simultaneously to supply and demand shocks. Exploiting high-frequency field crop futures prices and USDA crop reports, we estimate impacts of agricultural supply news shocks on food markets. A poor harvest news shock that raises field crop prices leads to an increase in food-at-home and food service prices, a decline in food expenditures. Using household-level food price indexes constructed across income quintiles, we find that welfare losses are approximately seven times larger for the lowest-income quintile than for the highest. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, without these shocks, U.S. food inflation during 2021-23 would have peaked up to 1.9 percentage points lower.
Identifying the causal effect of agricultural production conditions on food prices is challenging because commodity prices respond simultaneously to supply and demand shocks. Exploiting high-frequency field crop futures prices and USDA crop reports, we estimate impacts of agricultural supply news shocks on food markets. A poor harvest news shock that raises field crop prices leads to an increase in food-at-home and food service prices, a decline in food expenditures. Using household-level food price indexes constructed across income quintiles, we find that welfare losses are approximately seven times larger for the lowest-income quintile than for the highest. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, without these shocks, U.S. food inflation during 2021-23 would have peaked up to 1.9 percentage points lower.
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