The ongoing revival phase of the monsoon will pan out in the form of an expansive rain (in orange and yellow) spell for Central and North-West India, according to model forecasts. | Photo Credit: www.windy.com

The low-pressure area that triggered the monsoon’s second revival has weakened, but not before setting the stage for another week of heavy to very heavy rainfall across North-West and Central India, with the west coast also getting a share of the action.

The fresh spell comes even as India’s monsoon deficit has widened to 24 per cent as of Friday. East and North-East India remain the driest, with a 36 per cent shortfall, followed by the South Peninsula (28 per cent), North-West India (24 per cent); and Central India (13 per cent).

Forecast models indicate that the upcoming wet phase will focus on North-West and Central India. Among the cities likely in the firing line are Bhopal, Indore, Damoh and Guna in Madhya Pradesh; Kota in East Rajasthan; Bareilly in West Uttar Pradesh; Haldwani in Uttarakhand; Mandi, Dharamshala and Chamba in Himachal Pradesh; and Pathankot, Doda, Udhampur and Billawar in Jammu & Kashmir.

In contrast, the South Peninsula, fringes of West Rajasthan, and large parts of Maharashtra are expected to miss out on this rainy surge. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a broadly similar outlook. It has warned of heavy to very heavy rain, with isolated extremely heavy falls over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh on Monday and Tuesday, and over Uttarakhand on Sunday and Monday.

Very heavy rain is also likely at isolated places over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh on Wednesday; Himachal Pradesh on Sunday and Wednesday; Uttarakhand on Tuesday; Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab from Monday through Wednesday; and West Uttar Pradesh through Tuesday.

Central India will also see sustained activity. West Madhya Pradesh is likely to receive heavy rain for five days from Monday, while East Madhya Pradesh may see heavy showers on Sunday and again on Thursday and Friday. Chhattisgarh is forecast to receive heavy rain from Tuesday for four days, with isolated very heavy falls possible on Sunday .In the east, the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim could receive heavy to very heavy rain with isolated extremely heavy downpours on Sunday.

Along the west coast, widespread rainfall is expected over Konkan and Goa through the next six days, with heavy spells over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra from Tuesday. In the south, Kerala and Mahe are likely to receive isolated heavy rain on Sunday and Monday, and Coastal Karnataka on Sunday. 

Published on July 18, 2026