A warming Pacific Ocean can change weather patterns across the world — and India may feel the impact through its monsoon, farms and food prices. El Niño develops when warm water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific, weakening normal wind systems and disrupting rainfall. For India, the biggest concern is the southwest monsoon. IMD has forecast 2026 monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long-period average, placing it in the below-normal category. That does not mean every state will face drought, but it does raise the risk for rain-fed farming, crop output, rural incomes and household budgets. In this explainer, we break down what El Niño is, why strong El Niño events matter, how they can affect rainfall and heat, and what people should track in the months ahead.

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