MOSCOW, August 12. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) decline in global oil demand in 2026 amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and high oil prices, which are curbing consumption, the agency said in its report.

Thus, the agency downgraded its demand forecast by 510,000 bpd compared to its July expectations, when the IEA projected a decline of 1.047 million bpd. At the same time, the IEA noted that the worst is likely over, as the 5.8 million bpd demand drop in May appears to have been the bottom of the slump. In June, the situation improved, with demand falling by 4.8 million bpd.

Assuming further normalization, global demand is expected to resume growth by November, the report says.

According to IEA estimates, the oil demand decline stood at 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter and will hit 2.8 million bpd in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the first quarter saw a growth of 860,000 bpd, and the agency expects a 580,000 bpd increase in the fourth quarter.

According to the forecast, global oil demand in 2026 will total 103.288 million bpd against 104.844 million bpd in 2025. In 2027, the agency expects oil demand to reach 105.7 million bpd.