Campaigns & Elections

In Siena University’s first poll of likely voters this cycle, Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 10 points. Mike Groll/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

A new Siena University poll shows the race for governor narrowing three months from Election Day, even as Gov. Kathy Hochul maintains a double-digit, 10-point lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, her Republican challenger. 

The poll has Hochul leading Blakeman 49%-39% among likely voters. It’s the first survey of the cycle to poll that population. Since previous ones have been wider in scope and polled registered voters, it’s impossible to directly compare the results of this poll to others conducted about the race – but this is still the closest Siena has had the race yet. The last poll from Siena in June of registered voters had Hochul up 20 points over Blakeman.

Siena surveyed 811 likely voters in New York between Aug. 3 and 6. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

The findings show Hochul on worse footing now than about the same time four years ago. A Siena poll of likely voters released in August 2022 had Hochul leading then-Rep. Lee Zeldin by 14 points in the race for governor. She ultimately defeated him by just 6 points later that year in November. 

According to the new poll, independents are split but slightly favor Blakeman 45%-40%. The Republican also leads in the downstate suburbs by 8 points, 49%-41%. Both are slightly better showings for Blakeman than Zeldin four years ago, as well.

Still, likely voters polled by and large expressed more faith in Hochul to deliver on a number of high-priority issues, like affordability and safety. Specifically, a 51% majority said they believed the governor would do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing in the state, compared to Blakeman’s 35%. 

A 48% plurality also agreed Hochul would outperform her opponent on making prices more affordable, with 41% favoring Blakeman on the topic. A smaller 47%-44% plurality of likely voters said Hochul would deliver better on public safety, an issue Blakeman and other Republicans – including Zeldin in 2022 – have consistently attacked Hochul and other Democrats on. 

Hochul’s campaign defended the governor’s track record in a preemptive statement in response to the poll’s finding. “The difference in this race is crystal clear: Governor Hochul has put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets at every opportunity, invested billions in public safety, and stood up against Donald Trump’s endless attacks on this state … and that’s what we continue to see voters respond to,” campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said.

In better news for Hochul, the Siena poll found that the one-year moratorium on data centers she established is resonating with likely voters. The governor has heavily promoted the move in the weeks since signing the executive order. A small 52% majority said it was the right move, while just 25% of those polled said it was the wrong one.

The poll also asked likely voters to weigh in on who  will be some of the biggest surrogates for attack this race: President Donald Trump, whom Hochul has consistently sought to closely tie to Blakeman, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America, whom Blakeman has frequently criticized Hochul for working with. Trump remains deeply unpopular in New York, with a whopping 60% majority viewing him unfavorably and just 38% viewing him favorability, per the new poll. In the suburbs, the president’s numbers are much better, with 50% viewing him well compared to 48% who view him poorly. Trump is set to stump for Blakeman on Long Island on Friday. 

Mamdani’s rating remains positive, if only by a small margin, with a 47%-44% favorability across the state. But that drops to 60%-34% unfavorable in the suburbs, worse numbers than Trump statewide. The DSA is also underwater statewide, with only 30% of likely voters polled viewing the increasingly powerful left-wing organization favorably, while 47% viewed it unfavorably.