FanDuel and CME Group are revising their prediction market joint venture so that all sports-related bets placed on the FanDuel Predicts brokerage app will be executed via Crypto.com’s Nadex exchange instead of CME. To date, CME has executed single-leg sports bets placed in FanDuel Predicts, while the app incorporated Nadex in June to handle parlays. […]
FanDuel and CME Group are revising their prediction market joint venture so that all sports-related bets placed on the FanDuel Predicts brokerage app will be executed via Crypto.com’s Nadex exchange instead of CME.
To date, CME has executed single-leg sports bets placed in FanDuel Predicts, while the app incorporated Nadex in June to handle parlays. Going forward, CME will only process the non-sports bets on FanDuel Predicts, which represent less than 1% of the app’s activity. CME has a 51% equity stake in the joint-venture.
The announcement came tucked into a newsy second-quarter earnings report from FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment. Flutter announced that longtime CEO Peter Jackson would step down after nine years at the helm, and quarterly earnings trailed consensus estimates. In addition, FanDuel’s U.S. betting handle showed little growth, and the parent company lowered its full-year revenue expectations.
The stock (NYSE: FLUT) closed Wednesday trading down more than 11% at $92.91 per share.
CME’s reduced role in providing the infrastructure for FanDuel Predicts is another sign of differences between the financial derivatives powerhouse and gambling company. CME and FanDuel announced their joint-venture less than a year ago.
CME had increasingly expressed reservations about prediction market wagers involving sports, even as it took single-leg sports bets throughout the World Cup. CME did not want to execute parlays through its exchange; Crypto.com has no such qualms.
“When we originally negotiated this deal with FanDuel, our goal and objective had nothing to do with sports,” CEO Terry Duffy told analysts during a first-quarter earnings call.
It’s unclear when CME will stop executing FanDuel Predicts’ single-event sports wagers. As of Tuesday, it was still responsible for baseball moneyline, run total and spread bets, public data filings show.
The Chicago-based company isn’t getting out of sports entirely—through a partnership with FutureSports, it’s seeking regulatory approval to list monthly and quarterly cash-settled futures contracts tied to “indexes” that track team performances.
“Given the ongoing uncertainty related to sports event contracts, and as CME Group focuses more on market-based products, our FanDuel Predicts FCM will offer sports contracts, including individual performance and combo products, through Crypto.com,” a CME spokesperson wrote in an emailed statement.
Flutter acknowledged in its earnings that FanDuel Predicts is behind schedule.
Sportico reported that CME’s prediction market betting volume during the first two weeks of July at roughly 0.02% of all volume from U.S. regulated entities. The rise of federally regulated prediction markets has threatened to upend sports betting’s balance of power after years of FanDuel and DraftKings dominance on state-regulated traditional sportsbooks.
“While operational progress [on FanDuel Predicts] in H1 has been slower than planned, we are gaining traction,” FanDuel’s parent wrote Wednesday in its earnings presentation.
FanDuel declined a request for comment.
Jackson, Flutter’s departing CEO, told Barron’s that Flutter “[remains] committed to CME,” but that “we know what’s really important for consumers in our sports space is to have an app that’s fast and easy to use.”
Jackson has led Flutter since the start of 2018, when the company’s annual revenue was about $2.6 billion. That’s since grown to $16.38 billion, though its performance of late has been rocky because of increased saturation in legal U.S. betting states and disruption from the rapid growth of prediction markets. Flutter stock is down about 70% in the past 12 months, and nearly 40% in the past six months.
Jackson’s departure follows the exit of longtime FanDuel CEO Amy Howe, who was fired earlier this year after five years in the job.
For the second quarter, Flutter reported adjusted earnings of $0.49, trailing analyst estimates of about $0.54. Though its $4.33 billion in revenue beat consensus estimates, the company took $395 million off the midpoint of its full-year revenue guidance. That number, which was also lowered following Flutter’s first-quarter earnings, now stands at $17.91 billion.
Flutter’s U.S. business, which is basically just FanDuel, showed particularly slow growth relative to the rest of its operations. Handle increased just 2% in the U.S. vs. 13% internationally. Sportsbook revenue dropped 15%, which the company attributed to a string of bad on-field outcomes. iGaming revenue rose 14%. The company did not break out any financial specifics for FanDuel Predicts.
Jeffries analysts, who rate Flutter as a “buy,” said in a note Wednesday that the revised guidance was expected and that many of the company’s other performance metrics exceeded expectations. They also praised incoming CEO Dan Taylor, who currently runs Flutter’s non-U.S. business.
“The incoming CEO is well-placed to grip the tiller, but his appointment does foreshadow some short-term ‘reset’ disappointment,” the note said.
Citizens analysts, meanwhile, wrote that “confidence has moderated, and management must demonstrate it can return the business to a position of global leadership.”
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