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Latest NOAA map shows predictions for coldest, warmest states this winter
Дата публикации: 14-09-2026 11:12:44



Will Chicago have a snowy, cold winter this year, or will it stay more mild?
The latest temperature outlook map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean gives a bit of a hint.
According to aSept. 10 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, “greater than 90% chance” of a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. But that doesn’t necessarily mean snow or icy conditions for the midwest.
According to the National Weather Service, an El Niño weather pattern occurs when the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken, allowing warmer ocean water to be pushed to the east and toward the west coast of the Americas.
Those warmer waters then push the Pacific jet stream further to the south, which can allow warm, dry air to flood over the northern United States and can cause cooler and wetter conditions across the southern U.S.
In the Chicago area, the pattern often ends up leading to warmer and drier weather during the fall and winter months, according to the University of Illinois.
A seasonal temperature outlook map from NOAA for November, December and January of 2027 shows that could be the case.
The map, released Aug. 20, shows the entire upper Midwest “likely above” normal temperatures for the upcoming winter months. That includes all of northeastern Illinois, northwest Indiana, and all of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Further south, temperatures were expected to be near normal, the map showed. In the south and central part of the US, temperatures had an equal chance of being either warmer or colder than average.
The Farmer’s Almanac, however, which has issued projections since the 1800s, said the Chicago area and the broader Great Lakes region will likely see temperatures around normal for most of winter. The Farmer’s Almanac said the region could see “cold, snowy periods,” and it has predicted both frequent clipper systems and sudden cold snaps.
The publication said its outlooks are based on a “combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting” to make predictions. However, the almanac does not disclose its exact methodology.


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Will Chicago have a snowy, cold winter this year, or will it stay more mild?

The latest temperature outlook map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean gives a bit of a hint.

According to aSept. 10 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, "greater than 90% chance" of a very strong El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. But that doesn't necessarily mean snow or icy conditions for the midwest.

According to the National Weather Service, an El Niño weather pattern occurs when the trade winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken, allowing warmer ocean water to be pushed to the east and toward the west coast of the Americas.

Those warmer waters then push the Pacific jet stream further to the south, which can allow warm, dry air to flood over the northern United States and can cause cooler and wetter conditions across the southern U.S.

In the Chicago area, the pattern often ends up leading to warmer and drier weather during the fall and winter months, according to the University of Illinois.

A seasonal temperature outlook map from NOAA for November, December and January of 2027 shows that could be the case.

The map, released Aug. 20, shows the entire upper Midwest "likely above" normal temperatures for the upcoming winter months. That includes all of northeastern Illinois, northwest Indiana, and all of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Weather

Further south, temperatures were expected to be near normal, the map showed. In the south and central part of the US, temperatures had an equal chance of being either warmer or colder than average.

The Farmer's Almanac, however, which has issued projections since the 1800s, said the Chicago area and the broader Great Lakes region will likely see temperatures around normal for most of winter. The Farmer's Almanac said the region could see “cold, snowy periods," and it has predicted both frequent clipper systems and sudden cold snaps.

The publication said its outlooks are based on a “combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting" to make predictions. However, the almanac does not disclose its exact methodology.

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