How important is canon, anyway?One of my Worldcon panels is starting soon – come hear me talk with my fellow panelists about AUs, fix-its, and more! I’ll be sharing/referencing some of this AO3 data there. I’ll write it all up here & on AO3 in more detail soon.
One of my Worldcon panels is starting soon – come hear me talk with my fellow panelists about AUs, fix-its, and more! I’ll be sharing/referencing some of this AO3 data there. I’ll write it all up here & on AO3 in more detail soon.
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#fandom stats #canon divergence #aus #fix-its #worldcon #toastystats More you might likeMy slides for my final Worldcon panel! Once again, I will be writing all this up in more detail and sharing it here and on AO3.
One of my Worldcon panels is starting soon, and I’ll be sharing/referencing some of this AO3 data there. I’ll write it all up here & on AO3 in more detail soon and also expand it – I have analyses of other fandoms I didn’t have time to share yet.
Thanks so much to everyone who contributed thoughts and ideas about fandom longevity here and in the fandom data projects community!
(NB: there may be some data errors as I’ve been testing out a new scraper that pulls from new sources of data – code also to be shared soon – please do LMK if you spot any issues so I can fix things! One difference here from some of my other analyses is that I’m looking at when AO3 works were created vs. when they were last revised (and then trying to factor out Open Doors imports); I’m also attempting to pull in canon data info, but it’s not always reliable.)
carrochan asked:
How about some details on the Haikyuu fandom? :)

Hey! :) I don’t have time for a deep dive now, but can I recommend fandomstats.org, where you can get a quick sense of the AO3 fandom? (Use the official AO3 tag: Haikyuu!!)
For instance, a few things that jump out at me – Haikyuu has few crossovers.

For comparison: 1.3% of Sherlock works are also tagged Harry Potter; 1.5% of Naruto works are also tagged Harry Potter; 1% of Game of Thrones works are also tagged Harry Potter… I guess what I’m saying is, I’m a little surprised to see that only 0.2% of Haikyuu works are also tagged Harry Potter, and only 0.6% with the most common crossover, Kuroko no Basuke. But it’s not completely crazy, either; there are plenty of relatively self-contained universes in fandom, like Star Trek and Star Wars. (And, for that matter, only 0.7% of Supernatural works are also tagged Sherlock, which is its most common crossover.)
This fandom is dominated by M/M, but not by any single relationship:


It is also very fluffy! :)

Hope that helps a bit. Feel free to dig in deeper on fandomstats.org and try combinations like “Haikyuu!!, Alternate Universe” – which can reveal some of the most popular AUs in the Freeform Tags section (Soulmates, College/University, Fantasy, Coffee Shops, Canon Divergence):

Anonymous asked:
Has there been any thought or discussion on how quarintine is effecting how much fanfic is being posted/read and if its an even or uneven spread across ao3? I couldn't find anything but I feel someone must have done something....
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Hi! (And sorry if you asked this ages ago – I’ve been incredibly busy the past couple months and am just now seeing some of my asks, oops.)
Short answer – AO3 has been getting a ton of usage lately! To the point where I haven’t wanted to run any of my automated scripts to scrape data, because I don’t want to further tax their servers. But AO3 shared some stats. They have some cool graphs and info about how things like the China AO3 ban factor in – I encourage clicking through and reading the whole thing.
I’ve also revisualized a few of the stats in a different way, to highlight how things changed January-April (their post was made in April, so I don’t have more recent data). Basically, the rate of posting new works (especially new chapters) is going up, and so is the rate of page views and engagement with works. (This doesn’t capture seasonal patterns, though.)
Edit: oops, my last graph got left off! this shows differences over the years (there’s also a more granular graph in the original post) – notice that things have been increasing every year, but there’s a bigger jump from 2019 to 2020 and from January to April than the general trend predicts:
Inspired by the amazing stats @toastystats has shared with us I decided to analyse the Manga & Anime fandoms on ao3. This post is the first part of a wider research I plan on doing. Enjoy!
On the date of research there was a total of 549070 works published in the Anime & Manga category on ao3, within 2136 different fandoms.
54.9% of the total works in the Anime & Manga category was made by the top 20 fandoms.

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88.1% of the total works in the Anime & Manga category was made by the top 100 fandoms.
The remaining 2036 fandoms made only 21.9% of the total works. 1343 of these had less than 10 works per fandom.
* The data was gathered from ao3 on November 25th, 2017
Awesome – thanks for sharing! looking forward to seeing more in this series. :D
Our latest is live! 📊 And it's by none other than our most frequent podcast guest, @destinationtoast aka @toastystats!!!
Toast gets meta on their stats works, writing about how they got into fandom data analysis and the way their practice has evolved over the years. TOAST ORIGIN STORY:
The BBC’s modern adaptation of the Holmes mysteries compelled me to think, “Surely someone out there must have written fanfic about Sherlock Holmes and John Watson having sex.” I googled it and was led to AO3, where, in fact, many, many people were writing about that very thing.
This piece has many, many graphs and charts, including comparisons of the original stats Toast crunched back in 2013 alongside the results of those same questions today.
Click through to read or listen to Toast reading an audio version! 🍞
So excited to get this one out in the world! 💞 @destinationtoast has been such a fantastic collaborator over the years. I was really pleased we got the ORIGIN STORY here alongside pretty fascinating comparisons between 2013 AO3 and 2026 AO3. (Plus super interesting thoughts about fandom stats as fanworks!)
Woohoo!! I was delighted to write this piece about my journey with fandom data, and to share a bunch of retrospective data (2013 vs 2026)! Also to read my article aloud very cheerfully, I've been informed. XD
I have been given a ✨🎁 gift link 🎁✨ to share with y'all -- read the article free for one week! But also support to Fansplaining if you can, because they do great fandom journalism (like publishing me obvs 💅), and it's a bad economy for such things right now.
georgiakaredevilfan asked:
Dear Toast, I was reading something someone told me the other day. And he said said that non-canon ships tend to have more fics and material in their fandoms than the canon pairings. Would you say that there is any truth to this? For an example, I consider that in the Daredevil Netflix fandom, I feel there's about twice as many fics of Kastle (Karen/Frank), a non-canon and unlikely-to-become-canon pairing, as there are fics about Matt/Karen and Matt/Elektra (canon pairings) combined.
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Sorry to answer so belatedly! I suspect this is often the case, in part because there’s so much more left for fans to imagine and invent for non-canon ships. (Not that they can’t write fix-its when a ship is canon, but I believe that’s rarer.) However, I have no numbers to back this up, because I analyze tags, and most people don’t tag whether the ship in their story is canonical.
Edit: for your specific example, there are 1161 Frank/Karen works (904 of those in Daredevil– others in a related Marvel fandom), vs. 361 Matt/Karen works (353 in Daredevil) and 262 Matt/Elektra works (240 in Daredevil). So the difference is even bigger than you thought there!
once-a-polecat asked:
Do you have any broad numbers on the increase in Chinese language docs over time and across fandoms in recent years? Given the story around China blocking AO3, I’ve been seeing a lot of speculation that it’s because it narrow fandoms. That’s not consistent with what I’ve seen over the last few years, but I was wondering if you have hard numbers before I duplicate any work.
melodioustear asked:
Hello! I'm doing a PhD in mental illness narratives. My research looks at alternative mediums that allow people to better articulate the embodied experience of living with mental illness. Less about displaying a mentally ill person, and more about conveying what it's like to *be* mentally ill. One of the things I'm looking at is transformative works - so I'm trying to find stats on mental illness in fandom, be it on the works themselves or the authors. Do you have any recommendations? Ty! <3
Hey! I don’t know of any relevant stats offhand, but I’ll throw it out to my readers in case they have any suggestions. And good luck with the thesis!!
Anonymous asked:
Hello! Thank you for all your hard work~ I was wondering if you were aware of any stats or papers about commenting trends? I always see writers talking about getting less feedback these days, and I wonder if it's actually that people comment less, or if it is that there are more fandoms / writers / works spreading the fans who do comment thinner. Or if commenters used to be more likely to also be writers as well as readers and are now more likely to be one or the other. Thank you!
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destinationtoast answered:
Hey! Those are good questions. I don’t know of a ton of relevant data, but I’ll throw it out to my readers – does anyone else know of relevant studies/data?
I do have this comment data I collected recently:
We can see that nearly three quarters of fanworks on AO3 have fewer than 10 comments. I’ve looked at popularity metrics a number of times in the past, and when I examine the data from this post in 2014, I see that 12 years ago, over 40% of AO3 works had 0 comments (vs. 25% now). And at that time, only 5% of works had 25+ comments, whereas now 6% of works have 50+ comments.
So it looks like maybe things have actually gotten better, right? And possibly they have, in spite of the general sense from authors/creators that they’re getting less feedback than they used to. But OTOH, the older works have now been around longer and had time to accumulate a bunch more comments. This histogram can’t tell us about the age of the works with more comments, nor how quickly the comments have accumulated.
You are also right that fannish attention is probably spread thinner than before. There are a huge number of fandoms on AO3 (76K as of June 2026), and most of those fandoms are very small, meaning that a lot of attention is spread around – and most people in those fandoms are probably not getting nearly as much feedback as people in some of the really big/really active fandoms. (Though I will note as someone who has made the first/only work in a fandom that the people who DO comment on such a work are often extremely enthusiastic to have found it! :) )
(Sidenote: It’s worth me & other fandom data enthusiasts noting how few fandoms have 10K+ works, given how many fandom stats are about the big fandoms!)
I don’t have historical numbers on fandom sizes for comparison. But I expect that there has been a significant shift toward more smaller fandoms on AO3 (and elsewhere), given how the general cultural attention to media has fragmented over time. I have seen indirect evidence of such fragmentation… I recently compared the popular ships from 2013 to those now (forthcoming work!) and shockingly, most of the top 5 ships are the same now as in 2013. Which is undoubtedly due to a variety of factors, but it is consistent with the idea that fannish attention has spread out from the early mega-fandoms to a much wider set of new fandoms and ships now, and so very few new ships have gotten as much attention as the early mega-ships.
I do think commenting culture has almost certainly changed some over time, too. But it’s a bit tricky figure out how to quantify shifts. Even if we looked at a bunch of random works over AO3 ’s history and compared their numbers of comments to see how average comment number is changing over time, there are complications. As I mentioned before, newer works haven’t had as much time to accumulate comments as older ones. And I’ve also seen in the past that average numbers of kudos/comments/etc. can vary wildly by fandom/ship/tags. But that said, I could imagine sampling a whole bunch of works from different time periods and looking at how quickly they got their first comment, second comment, etc. If commenting has slowed down, then the time to the Nth comment would be longer now than before. (That would only partially address your questions, but could be interesting.) I kinda expect that maybe that’s not true for the new hotness like Heated Rivalry but is true for smaller fandoms, but that’s pure speculation!
I guess I could also write code to scrape my own AO3 inbox info (and my own Works posted dates) to gather the timing info for all the comments on my works. Then I could look at how commenting rate has changed over time for me and my own stories. But that wouldn’t tell me much unless I also got a ton of other people to use my code to scrape their own comment/work timing info and then shared that with me. On the one hand, that could help us look at longitudinal changes on the same creators over time, which would be interesting. On the other hand, it would introduce sampling bias (which creators are sharing their data? probably not a representative set!) and also be a heck of a lot of work. :)
I’m curious whether anyone else has ideas for methods of investigating! Maybe there are survey questions that would also be useful to ask, or other ways to investigate. I think the questions around how much writers overlap with commenters (or anything else involving individual commenter identities), are ones I would hesitate to try to address through scraping due to potential privacy issues – so something like survey questions might be a better approach there.
(Note also that I’m not signing up to do further research here, mind you, but it’s interesting to at least think through what would provide answers to these questions. :) )
One final note: For any histogram of things like number of comments or sizes of fandoms, it’s almost always the case that most things are in the smallest bucket due to power laws. But interestingly, that’s not what we see with comments when we zoom in:
It’s very cool to see that there are more works with two comments than one, more with four than three, and so on. I think this speaks to how much authors appreciate comments: they often reply, and so comments frequently occur in pairs!
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropes in transformative fanworks | 0 | 24.21 | 28-08-2026 |
| 2 | Rise and fall of fandoms | 0 | 19.84 | 27-08-2026 |
| 3 | Transformative works data analysis | 0 | 29.88 | 30-08-2026 |
| 4 | I’m going to be on a panel at WorldCon about The Rise and Fall of Fandoms (as well as several other… | 0 | 6.35 | 16-08-2026 |
| 5 | I know I’m an outlier, but how much of an outlier am I? | 0 | 8.21 | 11-08-2026 |
| 6 | WorldCon panels! (Aug 27-31) | 0 | 14.88 | 16-08-2026 |
| 7 | I don’t know if to print the aro one, cuz im more greyromantic….. and its more kinda similiar to… | 0 | 30.1 | 20-05-2026 |
| 8 | This week’s writer spotlight feature is: @mojowitchcraft! Since the last time… | 0 | 20.17 | 06-08-2026 |
| 9 | More Suiatsu concept/teaser images!! | 0 | 37.84 | 02-10-2026 |
| 10 | i fuck with this heavily | 0 | 37.4 | 03-04-2026 |