Дата публикации: 10-07-2026 19:50:03

Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon


Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for almost the entire week. Friday afternoon was an exception. Oil continued sideways to slightly lower while yields rose a bit. Overall damage was negligible, but it was interesting nonetheless. While there was no clear news or event behind the move, we can plainly see that it originated in the shortest end of the curve and/or Fed rate expectations. Friday afternoon illiquidity likely made the move bigger than it otherwise would have been. As for potential reasons, it could be as simple as dealers positioning for next week's inflation reports and Warsh testimony.




Econ Data / Events





Jobless Claims (Jul)/04

215.0K vs 218K f'cast, 215K prev








Market Movement Recap



09:11 AM Unchanged MBS and 10yr down half a bp at 4.548



11:13 AM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.553



02:19 PM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.568



03:35 PM Off the weakest levels. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.561

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