The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the third consecutive week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices were also down for the second week in a row. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 were down 0.38 per cent and 0.61 per cent, respectively. The NASDAQ Composite was knocked down over 2 per cent last week.

The price action over the last few weeks indicates that the US benchmark indices are struggling to rise and are turning down. Near-term supports are there for all the three indices. A break below it can drag them further lower in the coming weeks. Any bounce from here will be capped and can be short-lived.

The fall last week extended well beyond our expected level of 51,650. The index touched a low of 51,547.15 and has risen back from there. If it manages to get a good follow-through rise, then 52,350 or 52,500 can be seen this week. The region between 52,500 and 52,600 is a strong resistance which can cap the upside.

The Dow Jones can reverse lower either from 52,350 itself or from the 52,500-52,600 region and fall back to 51,800. A decisive break below 51,800 can then drag the index down to 51,300-51,000. Such a fall will clear the way for the index to see 50,000-49,000 on the downside eventually.

The crucial support level of 7,400 is holding for now. The index has to rise past 7,500 to get a breather and go up to 7,600. But that looks less likely as the price action towards the end of last week indicates the struggle to rise past 7,450. That keeps the S&P 500 index vulnerable to break 7,400 and fall to 7,300-7,250 or even 7,200-7,180 in the coming weeks.

The 7,200-7,180 region is a very crucial support. The index has to bounce back from there in order to avoid a deeper fall to 7,000.

The index has just broken the key support level of 25,000. That keeps our overall bearish view intact. Intermediate support is at 24,700, which can be tested this week. A break below it can drag the NASDAQ Composite index down to 24,100 or 23,900 in the coming weeks.

In case, the index manages to bounce back above 25,000 immediately from here, then a corrective bounce to 25,500-25,600 is possible. However, a rise beyond 25,600 is unlikely. The index can resume the fall from this 25,500-25,600 region.

The dollar index (101.45) has risen well, breaking above the 101.20 resistance. This has negated the fall to 100.20-100 mentioned last week. The region between 101.20 and 101 will act as a strong support now and limit the downside.

The outlook is bullish. The dollar index can now rise to 102.30 from here initially and then 103 eventually. Such a rise will also keep our medium-term bullish view to see 105-106 on the upside intact.

The index has to decline below 100.80 to bring back the chances of the fall to 100. But that looks less likely.

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.68 per cent) sustained well above its support at 4.5 per cent. Indeed, it has surged well breaking above the key resistance level of 4.6 per cent. A strong surge in crude oil price has pushed the yield higher.

Our overall bullish view remains intact. The rise to 4.8 per cent is happening in line with our expectation, but at a much faster pace.

If the current momentum sustains, there is potential to see 5 per cent also on the upside. We will have to wait and watch.

Published on July 25, 2026