The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the second consecutive week. The index was down 0.93 per cent for the week. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index, on the other hand, snapped their two-week rise. The indices fell 1.55 per cent and 2.90 per cent respectively. The recent price action indicates that the US benchmark indices are struggling to rise. This signals the absence of fresh buyers in the market. We suggest remaining cautious at the moment rather than being overly bullish on the US indices.

The index is struggling to rise past 53,000. Immediate support is at 52,000. A break below it can drag the index down to 51,700-51,650, the next key support zone. A bounce from this support zone can take the Dow Jones up to 52,000 and higher again.

But a break below 51,650 can increase the selling pressure. It will also indicate that a top is in place. In that case, 51,000 can be seen first. It will also keep the downside open to see 50,000-49,000 eventually in the coming weeks.

The resistance at 7,600 continues to cap the upside. The index hovered around 7,580 for most part of the week and fell sharply on Friday. Key supports are at 7,430 and 7,400. A decisive break below 7,400 will be bearish, triggering a potential fall to 7,200-7,100.

If the index manages to sustain above 7,400, it can rise back and remain inside a range of 7,400-7,600. A decisive break above 7,600 is needed to strengthen the bullish case for a rise to 7,800. The price action in the 7,430-7,400 region will need a close watch this week.

The Nasdaq Composite index failed to get a strong follow-through rise last week. A strong fall below 26,000 on Friday leaves the bias negative. Key support is at 25,000. A break below it can drag the Nasdaq Composite index down to 24,500 and even 24,000 in the coming weeks.

The region between 26,000 and 26,500 is a key resistance. A sustained rise above 26,500 is needed to take the index higher towards 28,000.

The dollar index (100.75) declined below the support at 100.60, but that was short-lived. The index has risen back from the low of 100.35. The immediate outlook is slightly unclear. Strong resistance is in the 101-101.20 region. As long as the index stays below the 101-101.20 resistance zone, the near-term bias will remain negative. A fall to 100.20-100 is possible in that case.

The dollar index has to breach 101.20 to gain a bullish momentum. Only then the upside will open up for a rise to 103. Such a rise will keep the doors open for the dollar index to see 105-106 in the medium term.

The US 10Yr Treasury Yield has come off after touching a high of 4.64 per cent last week. The broader picture remains positive. Immediate support is at 4.5 per cent. Below that, 4.4 per cent is the next important support, which can be tested if the yield breaks below 4.5 per cent. However, a fall beyond 4.4 per cent is less likely.

As long as the yield stays above 4.4 per cent, the outlook will remain bullish. A reversal — either from here or after a dip to 4.4 per cent — can take the 10Yr yield up to 4.6 per cent again. A sustained rise above 4.6 per cent can take the US 10Yr Treasury Yield up to 4.8 per cent in the medium term.

A decisive break below 4.4 per cent is needed to negate this bullish view.

Published on July 18, 2026